Traders expect hiring to resume in the US in August
Traders in prediction markets expect that after job losses in July, the US economy may have resumed hiring in August. On the Kalshi platform, the probability that the country created more than 50,000 jobs is estimated at 50%.
Traders’ and economists’ estimates
The Dow Jones consensus forecast calls for the creation of 53,000 jobs in the US in August. Meanwhile, traders on Polymarket put the probability of exceeding the 50,000-job mark at 48%.
As CNBC reports, participants on such platforms trade contracts predicting whether the number of jobs created in the US will exceed a specified level. The outcomes of these contracts are determined based on official data from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics.
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Forecast range
On Kalshi, traders also give roughly a one-in-four chance to a scenario in which the US economy lost jobs in August. They assess the probability of creating more than 80,000 jobs during the month at approximately the same level.
Over the previous two months, both economists and prediction market participants overestimated employment expectations. In June, they forecast a six-figure increase in jobs, while the actual figure was slightly below 60,000. In July, they expected employment growth, but the US economy lost jobs.
The US Bureau of Labor Statistics’ August employment data are due to be released on Friday at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time.
