Earth's temperature is approaching a critical threshold, says the UN

The world will almost certainly be unable to limit global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. The consequences of climate change are already evident in deadly floods, extreme heat, and massive wildfires. At the same time, the UN emphasizes that progress in reducing emissions is still possible, but to achieve this, countries must urgently strengthen their climate policies.

In 2015, at the Paris Climate Conference, the international community agreed to work toward limiting global warming to 1.5°C compared to pre-industrial levels. However, more than a decade later, UN Secretary-General António Guterres acknowledges that this goal will most likely not be achieved.

According to him, the consequences of climate change are already devastating. These include deadly floods, extreme heat waves, massive wildfires, loss of life, disruption of economic activity, and deepening inequality.

“Those least responsible for this are the first and hardest hit,” Guterres emphasized.

That is why, according to the UN, it is crucial to ensure that the temperature rise does not exceed the 1.5°C threshold by more than necessary.

For warming to exceed this level by only a few tenths of a degree by mid-century—reaching approximately 1.7–1.8°C—global greenhouse gas emissions must be reduced rapidly.

According to a report by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), emissions must be reduced by more than 6% annually by 2035 compared to 2025 levels. However, emissions continue to rise at present. The main cause remains the burning of fossil fuels—coal, oil, and natural gas.

Despite the bleak forecasts, there are positive developments in the fight against climate change. UNEP Executive Director Inger Andersen emphasizes that the achievements of recent years prove that reducing greenhouse gas emissions remains possible.

According to her, since the adoption of the Paris Climate Agreement, global renewable energy capacity and electricity generation have grown three times faster than expected. The development of solar energy, particularly photovoltaic installations, has progressed seven times faster than projected.

At the same time, the use of coal for electricity generation grew more slowly than previous estimates had predicted.

These results indicate that the transition to cleaner energy sources can accelerate emissions reductions if governments support these changes with consistent policies.

The UNEP report emphasizes that decisive government action is the most effective way to change the situation. If countries continue on their current course, global warming could reach 2.8°C by the end of the century.

Even fulfilling the more ambitious commitments that countries set out in their climate plans would limit warming to approximately 2.1°C.

Guterres believes that the main obstacle is not only the gap between the necessary and actual reductions in emissions, but also a lack of political resolve.

“The emissions gap has now become a gap in political leadership—and the world is running out of time and excuses to bridge it,” the UN Secretary-General stated.

He called on governments to significantly step up measures to combat climate change and act more quickly, as every year of delay makes it harder to achieve climate goals.

The next opportunity to coordinate international action will arise in a few weeks in Antalya, Turkey, where the 31st UN Climate Change Conference is scheduled to take place.

Even before the event begins, Turkey, which will chair the conference, has called on countries to agree on a global electrification target.

Environmental organizations generally support the idea itself but criticize its current wording. In their view, electrification must be linked to the development of clean electricity generation, particularly wind and solar power.

Another key issue will be the financing of measures to mitigate climate change and adapt to its effects in developing countries. Conference participants are set to discuss whether industrialized nations should provide such support and under what conditions.

The scale of the problem is also demonstrated by natural disasters, particularly the floods that have recently hit Valencia, Spain. Such events serve as a reminder of the risks described in UN reports on climate change.

On the eve of the climate summit, António Guterres called on the world not to delay necessary decisions.

“Every fraction of a degree matters. Every year of delay makes the path back more difficult. Let’s bridge this gap now,” the UN Secretary-General emphasized.

This was reported by the German publication Tagesschau, citing estimates from the United Nations.

In their annual “State of the Climate” report, published on October 14 in the journal BioScience, scientists stated that the Earth’s climate system is increasingly entering uncharted territory.