ISW stated that Russia has exaggerated its successes on the front lines
The Russian Ministry of Defense is significantly exaggerating the extent of its troops’ advance in Ukraine, according to analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). According to their assessment, Moscow is attempting to create the impression that Ukraine’s defenses are on the verge of collapse and that support for Ukraine from its partners is pointless. The ISW cited figures that, according to analysts, differ significantly from Russian claims.
The Russian Ministry of Defense has claimed significant successes for the Russian army on the front lines. However, the data provided by the Russian side differs significantly from the Institute for the Study of War’s assessments. In its September 19 report, the ISW stated that the Russian Ministry of Defense continues to exaggerate the extent of Russian troop advances. According to analysts, such statements are part of the Kremlin’s information campaign, which is aimed at both the Russian audience and other countries.
What Russia Claims
On September 19, the Russian Ministry of Defense reported that since the beginning of 2026, Russian troops had allegedly captured over 5,300 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory and more than 220 settlements. According to the Russian account, in September alone, the Russian army allegedly took control of more than 670 square kilometers and 27 settlements. The ISW considers these figures to be significantly overstated.
Analysts estimate that Russian forces have actually captured about 147.7 square kilometers and 40 settlements this year. At the same time, the Russians have lost control of 20 settlements, so the net result in terms of the number of settlements is negative.
If we include the territories where Russian forces managed to penetrate but did not establish control, the total area would be approximately 718.8 square kilometers. Even this figure remains several times smaller than the number cited by the Russian Ministry of Defense.
How Much Territory Has Ukraine Liberated?
At the same time, the ISW estimates that Ukrainian forces have liberated at least 972.56 square kilometers of territory and 60 settlements since the beginning of the year. Analysts also note that Ukrainian forces have carried out successful counterattacks in the Kupiansk, Oleksandrivka, and Lyman sectors.
According to the ISW’s assessment, the Ukrainian army has been able to maintain the strategic and operational initiative since the end of 2025. Russian troops, meanwhile, have made very minor territorial gains since March 2026.
Why Is Russia Making Such Statements?
The ISW believes that Russian statements serve several purposes. One of them is to convince Ukrainians and Ukraine’s international partners that the situation on the front lines is supposedly rapidly shifting in Russia’s favor. In this way, the Kremlin is trying to create the impression that continued support for Ukraine will not change the situation, and that a Russian victory is inevitable.
Analysts also noted the timing of the statement. The Russian Ministry of Defense released these figures during the elections to the State Duma of the Russian Federation, which are taking place September 18–20. In addition, the UN General Assembly in New York is set to begin in a few days. The ISW believes that this particular moment may have been significant for the Kremlin. Domestically, the Russian government seeks to showcase the army’s alleged successes to voters, while for the international audience, it aims to paint a picture of rapid Russian advances.
The ISW also notes issues with reporting within the Russian military
Analysts suggest that the inflated figures may not be solely due to deliberate propaganda. In their view, there is a systemic problem within the Russian military regarding the transmission of information about the situation on the front lines. Lower-ranking commanders may submit more optimistic reports on combat results to their superiors than the actual situation warrants.
ISW has previously highlighted the so-called culture of “whitewashed reports” within Russian forces. This refers to a situation where the command receives information about successes that are not actually corroborated on the ground.
What’s Happening on the Front Lines
In its latest report, ISW also cited specific examples that, according to analysts, contradict some of Russia’s claims. In particular, the Russian Ministry of Defense reported successes in the Lyman sector and the actual capture of certain settlements. At the same time, the ISW found no evidence that Russian forces controlled some of these settlements.
For example, the Russian side claimed to have captured Svyatogorsk. However, according to the ISW’s assessment, Russian positions remained approximately 25 kilometers from the city. Regarding Lyman, analysts also noted that Russian troops carried out isolated incursions but were unable to consolidate these positions.
Russian forces also continued offensive operations in the Pokrovsk and Dobropillia sectors. At the same time, the ISW did not confirm some of the Russian Ministry of Defense’s claims regarding the capture of certain settlements.
At the same time, analysts have documented isolated Russian advances. In particular, based on geolocated footage, Russian forces recently advanced in Kostiantynivka. Therefore, the ISW’s assessment does not mean that Russia has made no territorial gains at all, but rather concerns the scale of those gains as claimed by the Russian side.
What picture does the ISW see?
The ISW’s overall assessment is that the actual pace of Russian advances is significantly slower than what the Russian Ministry of Defense reports. Analysts believe that the Kremlin is attempting to create the impression of a rapid Russian advance and an imminent collapse of Ukrainian defenses. At the same time, the actual data cited by the ISW show much slower Russian gains and simultaneous Ukrainian counterattacks.
The ISW itself emphasizes that its assessments are based on open sources, including reports from Ukrainian and Russian sides, social media data, geolocated materials, and satellite imagery. The organization does not have access to classified intelligence data. This is reported by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
Over the past 24 hours, on September 19, there were 234 combat engagements between the Ukrainian Defense Forces and Russian troops on the front lines. The highest number of attacks was recorded in the Kostiantynivka and Pokrovsk sectors, where Russian forces attempted to break through Ukrainian defenses.
