Russia will not be able to capture the rest of Donetsk Oblast until at least the fall of 2032 – ISW
At the current pace of the offensive, Russian troops would not be able to fully occupy the rest of the Donetsk region until the fall of 2032. At the same time, ISW analysts do not consider it a proven fact that Russia is even capable of capturing the entire region.
Analysts noted that in August 2026, the average rate of advance of Russian troops in the Donetsk region was only 2.36 square kilometers per day. Currently, approximately 19% of the region’s territory remains under Ukrainian control.
If the Russian army continues to advance at the same pace, it would take until October 2, 2032, to capture the rest of the Donetsk region. That would be more than a year after the next elections to the Russian State Duma, which are likely to take place in September 2031.
At the same time, the ISW emphasizes that this calculation is not a prediction that Russia will actually be able to capture the entire Donetsk region. Analysts are currently not at all prepared to assert that Russian troops are capable of accomplishing this task within any specific timeframe.
One of the main obstacles for the occupiers remains Ukraine’s “belt of fortresses.” The Russians would have to wage grueling urban battles for Sloviansk, Kramatorsk, Druzhkivka, and other settlements before they could continue their advance across open terrain.
At the same time, Russian dictator Vladimir Putin’s plans differ significantly from the actual situation on the battlefield. According to the ISW, Putin is convinced that Russian troops are capable of capturing the entire Donetsk region by the end of 2026.
Analysts emphasized that Russian troops will not meet this new deadline. Since October 2025, the occupiers have been fighting for Kostiantynivka, but in 11 months they have still not managed to capture the city. At the same time, they have not even reached Sloviansk, Kramatorsk, or Druzhkivka.
Moreover, since the start of the full-scale invasion, Putin has set at least 15 deadlines for seizing the entire Donetsk region. The Russian army has failed to meet any of them.
The ISW suggests that one of the reasons for Putin’s unrealistic expectations was the false and exaggerated reports from the Russian military command. The practice of so-called “whitewashing reports” is widespread in the Russian military, which can give the dictator a distorted picture of the situation on the front lines. According to analysts, this reinforced his belief that Russia is capable of achieving its goals without making concessions in negotiations.
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