In 2026, Russian industry will enter a recession for the first time in six years

The problems facing Russian industry extend far beyond the oil refining sector, which has been hit hard. In some sectors, production has fallen by more than 20–30%.

By the end of 2026, Russia’s industrial sector will show a decline for the first time since the coronavirus pandemic. The Russian Ministry of Economic Development has revised its previous forecast downward amid sanctions, high interest rates, and attacks on infrastructure facilities.

According to the ministry’s new forecast, industrial production will decline by 0.2% for the year. As recently as May, the Ministry of Economic Development had expected growth of 0.6%.

If the forecast proves accurate, this will mark the first annual contraction in Russian industry since 2020. At that time, amid the coronavirus pandemic, production fell by 2.9%.

Official Russian statistics are already reflecting this deterioration. According to Rosstat, industrial production showed zero growth during the first eight months of 2026 and declined by 0.8% in August.

The fuel and heavy industries were among the hardest-hit sectors. Amid attacks on Russian oil refineries, production of petroleum products has been declining for the third consecutive month—by approximately 20%.

At the same time, the negative trend has spread to industries whose enterprises were not directly targeted by Ukrainian strikes. In particular, elevator production in Russia has fallen by more than 20%, and freight car production by more than 30%.

Problems have also arisen in the metallurgy sector, where companies are being forced to shut down blast furnaces. Due to unprofitability, Russia is also mothballing some of its diamond mines.

The Russian government’s tax policy could place additional pressure on industry. The Russian Ministry of Finance has proposed yet another tax increase, which will add to the burden on businesses amid an already existing decline in production.

This is reported by Russian propaganda media.

The Russian economy has entered a systemic recession, with industry slipping into negative territory for the first time.

After three years of unexpected economic growth, Russia is facing a sudden slowdown—war expenses, inflation, and falling oil prices have begun to weigh on an economy that, until recently, seemed resilient to sanctions.

Consumer lending in Russia has fallen to a six-year low.