In September, the expansion of occupied territories in Ukraine doubled, according to DeepState

According to DeepState’s latest estimate, the area of Ukrainian territory occupied by Russia increased by 154 square kilometers in September. Previously, analysts had estimated this figure at 66 square kilometers.

DeepState explained that the change in the statistics is primarily due to a delay in the release of information about the successes of the Ukrainian Defense Forces, stemming from the need to maintain operational security.

DeepState analysts note that statistics on changes in the area of occupied territories are not based solely on daily map updates. Data on the liberation of specific areas may be released with a delay.

According to DeepState, some of the most recent changes near Oleksandrivka, Kupiansk, and Lyman relate to events that took place as far back as May, June, and in some cases July and August.

As a result, after the official release of information about the Defense Forces’ operations, the figures for previous months may be retroactively revised.

The current trends reported by DeepState are as follows:

• July – the figure changed from 36 to 63 square kilometers;
• August – from 5 to 124 square kilometers;
• September – from 66 to 154 square kilometers.

Thus, over the last three months, the cumulative increase in occupied territories, based on current figures, amounts to 341 square kilometers.

According to DeepState, following a recalculation in May and June, the Ukrainian Defense Forces regained control of at least 108 square kilometers of territory.

Because the results of individual operations are reported with a delay, these figures also affect the statistics for subsequent months.

DeepState has previously explained such adjustments. In July, analysts reported that Ukrainian troops had reduced the area of occupied territory by 52 square kilometers based on the results from May and June. After accounting for this data, the net figure for Russian advances in July was estimated at 88 square kilometers.

DeepState now reports that, across various sections of the front line between July and September, at least 270–320 square kilometers of territory remain, the liberation of which has not yet been fully reflected in publicly available statistics.

Some of these changes may be accounted for after official announcements regarding completed operations. At the same time, the situation on the front continues to evolve, so individual liberated areas may fall back under enemy control before the final tally is completed.

DeepState emphasizes that an accurate tally is complicated by the need to keep operationally sensitive information about Ukrainian military actions confidential.

“The mathematics of war is becoming more complex, but for us, the operational security of our troops remains the highest priority in our work,” the analysts noted.

Some results of the Defense Forces’ operations have already been reflected in the updated maps.

In late September, DeepState reported regaining control of a 10.2-square-kilometer area near Kalynove.

Analysts also reported on the results of the third phase of Operation “Vivaldi” in the Lyman sector. According to DeepState, Ukrainian forces regained control of 51 square kilometers of territory.

Figures from different analytical projects may vary due to differing calculation methods and the timing of when information about changes on the front lines becomes available.

In particular, the ISW cites different figures in its September assessment. According to estimates by the U.S. Institute for the Study of War, Russian forces captured 175.54 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory while losing control of 256.35 square kilometers.

Thus, statistics on territorial changes remain fluid and may be revised as new information emerges regarding the results of operations by the Ukrainian Defense Forces.

This is reported by DeepState analysts. 

On October 2, there were 190 combat engagements on the front lines. Russian troops carried out 59 airstrikes, dropped 197 guided bombs, launched over 5,600 kamikaze drones, and carried out nearly 2,000 artillery strikes. The highest number of attacks was recorded in the Pokrovsk and Kostiantynivka sectors.

The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine updated the data on Russian military losses in the war against Ukraine as of the morning of Saturday, October 3, 2026.