Ukraine has seized the initiative on the front lines and nullified Russia's gains, according to ISW
In 2026, Ukrainian forces seized the initiative on the front lines, nearly erasing the Russian army’s territorial gains and launching counteroffensive operations on several fronts simultaneously.
Analysts note that in late 2025 and throughout 2026, the Ukrainian military was able to effectively counter the Russian initiative for the first time since the Kursk offensive in August 2024.
According to ISW estimates, as of March 2026, the Russian army’s net territorial gains had virtually come to naught.
At the same time, Ukrainian forces carried out counteroffensives in the Kupiansk, Oleksandrivka, and Lyman sectors. These operations allowed the Ukrainian Defense Forces to thwart a number of the Russian command’s plans.
In particular, the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ counteroffensives halted Russian troops’ attempts to advance into the Dnipropetrovsk region.
In the Kupiansk sector, Ukrainian forces regained some of the positions they had previously lost in the city and its surroundings, and repelled new attempts by Russian troops to capture them.
Another significant achievement was the destruction of a major Russian salient that posed a threat to the northern flank of Sloviansk and the entire defense system of the Donetsk region.
Despite the successes of Ukrainian forces, the Russian army continues to achieve isolated gains on the front lines.
According to the ISW, the occupying forces have achieved limited but significant gains in Kostiantynivka and the surrounding area.
Russian units have also advanced east of Sloviansk and Kramatorsk. However, in these areas, they are having to exert considerable effort to maintain the pace of their offensive.
A similar situation is observed in other sectors. Therefore, analysts conclude that the situation on the front remains dynamic, and the struggle for strategic initiative continues.
Amid difficulties with their advance, Russian commanders are reportedly pressuring Vladimir Putin to order a large-scale mobilization.
The likely goal of such a decision is to restore the Russian army’s ability to capture new territories and maintain the offensive initiative.
At the same time, analysts note that it remains unclear to what extent a new wave of mobilization could change the situation on the battlefield, should the Russian dictator actually agree to carry it out.
This is stated in a report by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
The Russian army’s total combat losses since the start of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine have reached approximately 1,506,900 servicemembers.
Ukraine has effectively become a testing ground for modern weapons and military technologies. Going forward, these must be actively utilized to minimize casualties among personnel. This was stated at the Yalta European Strategy (YES) conference by Brigadier General Yevhen Lasyichuk of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, commander of the 7th Airborne Assault Corps.
Ukraine is preparing for several months of fierce fighting for the key cities of the Donetsk region—Sloviansk and Kramatorsk. The troops of the Russian Federation—the aggressor state—are less than 15 km from both cities.
