A Russian division was destroyed as a result of Operation Vivaldi — ISW

Operation “Vivaldi” and other counteroffensive operations by Ukrainian forces in 2026 enabled Ukraine to seize the operational initiative along the entire front line and effectively halt the Russian army’s advance. This was reported by analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), who also stated that a large Russian division was destroyed during the operation.

 

According to U.S. analysts, Operation “Vivaldi” thwarted Russia’s plans to capture the Donetsk region. The Ukrainian Armed Forces’ counteroffensive foiled the enemy’s attempt to bypass the Ukrainian defensive line from the north and create conditions for encircling it.

It is known that the Ukrainian Armed Forces advanced to the Zherebets River, which allowed them to shorten the front line and organize their defenses along more advantageous positions. As a result, Ukrainian forces can concentrate more infantry on a smaller section of the front and use drones and artillery more effectively.

Furthermore, it is noted that in order to resume offensive operations in the Lyman direction, Russian troops will have to cross the Zherebets River again. Thus, Operation “Vivaldi” thwarted the Russians’ attempt to encircle Lyman from the north, specifically via Svyatogorsk, and subsequently link up in the Barvinkove area of the Kharkiv region with another force group that was supposed to advance from the southwest via the Dobropil sector.

In effect, the Ukrainian counteroffensive has shattered the Russian plan for an operational encirclement. Now Russian forces are forced to consider the option of a frontal assault east of Sloviansk and Kramatorsk. Such a scenario involves direct attacks on well-prepared Ukrainian defensive positions, which significantly complicates the advance and increases its cost for the enemy.

According to estimates by the Institute for the Study of War, between September 1 and October 16, 2026, Russian forces lost control of an area of approximately 122 square kilometers. At the same time, since the beginning of 2026, they have managed to capture approximately 100 square kilometers.

It is also known that during Operation “Vivaldi,” the Russian Federation’s 144th Motorized Rifle Division suffered such significant losses that it effectively ceased to exist as an organized combat unit.

To restore its offensive capabilities in the Lyman direction, Russia will have to rebuild the division’s combat readiness. This will place an additional strain on the Russian army’s manpower system, which is already facing increasing difficulties.

Since the summer of 2026, Russia’s combat losses have been rising. According to estimates, the Russian army has lost more than 40,000 troops killed or wounded in just a few months.

Source: ISW

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