Drop Site News reported on CIA assessment of civil war risk in Israel — Anadolu Agency

Drop Site News reported that a classified assessment by the US Central Intelligence Agency warns that deepening political, economic and social divisions could put Israel at risk of civil war or state collapse. According to Anadolu Agency, the document allegedly relies on information from two US sources familiar with its contents.

Red Cell document

According to Drop Site News, the assessment, titled “Fracture From Within,” was prepared in August by the CIA’s Red Cell unit. Its task is to challenge established intelligence assumptions. The CIA did not respond to Drop Site News’ request for comment.

The assessment lists a combination of factors ahead of Israel’s elections on October 27. They include economic strain, rising military spending, resentment over the exemption of ultra-Orthodox Jews from mandatory military service, and escalating violence by Israeli occupiers in the occupied West Bank.

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Internal tensions

The document also mentions Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s struggle to retain power as a factor contributing to additional political and constitutional tensions. According to the assessment, years of wars in Gaza, Lebanon and Iran have intensified existing divisions, while soldiers return after prolonged combat, often with serious psychological trauma.

One of the sharpest internal fault lines is described as the dispute over conscription. Dissatisfaction with the exemption of ultra-Orthodox men from service is growing after repeated mobilizations of reservists. The assessment also points to Israel’s international isolation and weakening support in the United States as factors capable of deepening internal instability.