NATO is preparing three steps in case of a Russian attack on the Baltic states — Bild
NATO is considering a scenario in which Russia might attack Estonia, Latvia, or Lithuania and is preparing several levels of response. According to the German newspaper Bild, the plan calls for countering Russian missiles and drones, establishing an unmanned barrier near the border, and striking Russian military infrastructure deep within its territory. At the same time, the concept does not call for the capture of Russian territory, but rather for halting the advance and pushing Russian troops back to the border.
According to Bild, the relevant measures are described in the “NATO Land Warfare Concept.” The document, according to the publication, was largely drafted by U.S. Major Andrew Pingree. Specifically, it addresses a possible scenario of a Russian attack on one of the Baltic states—Estonia, Latvia, or Lithuania. All three countries are NATO members, so an attack on any of them would trigger a crisis for the entire Alliance.
The first area concerns defense against missile and drone attacks. If Russia launches a large-scale offensive following a scenario similar to the full-scale war against Ukraine, NATO plans to use fighter jets, missiles, and drones to counter Russian weapon systems.
In such a scenario, particular attention is being paid to the Kaliningrad region. Russia has concentrated air defense systems, missile complexes, and other military facilities there. The plan is that neutralizing these assets will reduce the Russian military’s ability to strike NATO countries.
An unmanned barrier could be established along the border
The second element of the plan involves creating a so-called “autonomous zone” along the borders with Russia and Belarus. The idea is to minimize the military presence directly in the most dangerous zone as much as possible. Instead, unmanned systems could operate there, capable of monitoring the movements of Russian troops and attacking them if they advance.
This isn’t just about aerial drones. According to Bild, the concept also calls for the use of unmanned ground vehicles. In this way, some of the most dangerous work can be carried out by machines rather than military personnel.
This approach draws heavily on the experience of the war in Ukraine. Drones have already become one of the main tools on the battlefield, and they are used for reconnaissance, fire control, striking military equipment, and monitoring large sections of the front line.
NATO Allows Operations Behind Russian Lines
The third strategy involves operations far beyond the immediate combat zone. This involves striking targets that supply the Russian army and help it continue its offensive. Potential targets include military airfields, defense industries, bridges, and railway hubs. It is through such facilities that Russia can transport troops, ammunition, and military equipment to the combat zone.
The concept also mentions the possibility of deploying special forces. They could operate behind enemy lines and disable key military facilities. Separately, the document discusses enlisting Russians who oppose Vladimir Putin. According to the authors of the concept, they could assist in such operations.
Another element of the plan is called the “air bridge.” Its essence lies in delivering drones and robotic systems into Russian territory via aircraft. Such devices could attack military bases and airfields.
There are no plans to capture Russian territory
At the same time, according to Bild, NATO’s goal is not to seize Russian territory. The concept envisions a different objective—to halt the Russian offensive and force Russian troops to retreat to the internationally recognized border. In other words, the goal is to deprive the Russian army of the ability to continue its offensive as quickly as possible. To achieve this, the plan proposes acting not only directly on the battlefield but also against the military infrastructure that supports Russian units.
A distinctive feature of this approach is that NATO is reportedly not trying to completely conceal its capabilities. On the contrary, revealing such a plan may be part of a deterrence strategy. The logic here is simple: Moscow must understand in advance that an attack on one of the Baltic states will not be limited to fighting on its territory. The response could involve aircraft, missiles, drones, and special forces, and Russian military facilities could become targets far from the front lines.
At the same time, it is important to emphasize that the document described by Bild is a planning scenario, not an announcement of the start of any military operation. The existence of such a plan does not in itself mean that NATO expects an imminent attack by Russia. Its purpose is to prepare the Alliance for possible developments and to demonstrate to a potential adversary the cost of aggression.
Why the Baltic States?
Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania share a border with Russia or Belarus and are located near the Russian Federation’s Kaliningrad Oblast. For this reason, the Baltic states are considered one of the most challenging areas for NATO’s defense. In the event of a large-scale conflict, Russia could attempt to exploit the proximity of its military facilities to the region, as well as a land route through Belarus. That is why NATO views the defense of the Baltic states not as a separate operation, but as part of a broader system for protecting the Alliance’s eastern flank.
For NATO countries, the main task in such a scenario would be to prevent a rapid breakthrough by Russian forces. The longer Russia is able to advance and deploy reinforcements, the more difficult the defense will become. Therefore, the concept relies on rapid target detection, the widespread use of drones, and strikes against logistics. This is precisely why the document devotes so much attention not only to troops on the front lines but also to airfields, railways, bridges, warehouses, and defense industries. If the army is deprived of the ability to receive personnel, equipment, and ammunition, its offensive capabilities are significantly reduced. This is reported by Bild.
As a reminder, NATO fighter jets shot down a drone in Latvian airspace.
On August 14, Latvian Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs commented on the incident involving a drone that violated the country’s airspace. According to him, the incident confirmed the effectiveness of Latvia’s air defense system.
