IFOP poll: Le Pen leads in all French election scenarios — Interia

According to Interia, an IFOP poll showed that Marine Le Pen leads in all examined scenarios for France’s presidential election. In the first round, the representative of the National Rally party could receive between 34% and 38% of the vote, regardless of who represented the centrist bloc.

Second-round modelling

In all considered second-round scenarios, Le Pen was ahead of potential opponents. She is projected to have the largest lead in a hypothetical contest against Jean-Luc Mélenchon, leader of La France Insoumise: 68% versus 32%.

In a scenario involving social-democratic left-wing politician Raphaël Glucksmann, Le Pen could receive 57% of the vote, while Glucksmann would receive 43%. Paired against former Prime Minister Édouard Philippe, her result would be 56%, while Philippe would receive 44%.

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The poll, commissioned by LCI, Le Figaro and Sud Radio, was conducted online among 1,928 people from the evening of October 17 through October 19. According to LCI, support for Le Pen rose by approximately two percentage points compared with a survey conducted in the first half of October.

Protests and damage assessments

The results of the study were published after a wave of protests in French cities that were accompanied by clashes with police, car arson, looting of shops and damage to public buildings. Le Pen placed responsibility for the situation in the country on President Emmanuel Macron and called for tougher legislation against participants in violent riots.

The protests began in mid-September with demonstrations by students demanding improved learning conditions. According to an estimate by the IFRAP foundation, material damage amounts to between €259 million and €911 million, while total losses, including damage to businesses, may exceed €1.1 billion. The Financial Times, citing Morningstar DBRS, reported that insured losses could reach €1.2 billion.