In Brazil, President Lula leads Senator Bolsonaro in poll — MercoPress
In Brazil, President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has 40% support ahead of the presidential election on October 4, while Senator Flávio Bolsonaro has 36%, according to a Datafolha poll. Neither of the two race leaders currently has the 50% needed to win in the first round.
Poll results
As MercoPress reports, the poll was conducted on September 22 and 23 among 2,002 voters in 125 municipalities. The margin of error is two percentage points. The survey was commissioned by the newspaper Folha de S.Paulo and TV Globo and registered with electoral authorities under code BR-00304/2026.
According to the poll, Augusto Cury is supported by 5% of respondents, Ronaldo Caiado by 4%, and Renan Santos by 3%. Romeu Zema and Samara each received 1%. Another 5% of respondents said they would cast a blank or invalid ballot, while 2% were undecided.
In a possible second round on October 25, Lula da Silva receives 47% and Bolsonaro 45%. This gap is within the margin of statistical error. A week earlier, the figures were 46% versus 44% in the second-round simulation.
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Support among individual groups
Lula da Silva leads Bolsonaro among the poorest half of voters, 46% to 32%; among people with the lowest level of education, 49% to 29%; and in the country’s northeast, 55% to 25%. Bolsonaro has an advantage among evangelicals, 47% to 27%; in the southern region, 47% to 27%; and among citizens with incomes of two to five minimum wages, 40% to 34%.
In southeastern Brazil, Bolsonaro has 37% compared with 35% for Lula da Silva, although this is also a statistical tie. About 80% of poll participants called their choice final. Among those who do not identify with either of the two political camps, 35% said they could still change their decision.
Social benefits and security
The 15% increase in the Bolsa Família payment, announced by Lula da Silva less than three weeks before the vote, did not change the distribution of votes among benefit recipients: support for the president rose from 52% to 53%, while support for his rival fell from 28% to 27%. Bolsonaro accused the president of trying to “buy the poor” with the decision.
The campaign is also again discussing the fight against organized crime. The United States and 14 other countries said they intended to act in a coordinated manner against 24 transnational criminal organizations, including the Brazilian groups Primeiro Comando da Capital and Comando Vermelho. Brazil is not part of this mechanism. Lula da Silva’s government rejects the U.S. designation of these groups as terrorist organizations, while Bolsonaro supported it.
