Russia’s war and drought increase the threat of hunger worldwide — Daily Maverick
South African publication Daily Maverick estimates that Russia’s war against Ukraine, disruptions in the energy and fertilizer markets, the war in the Middle East, and the impact of El Niño are increasing risks to global food security. According to the publication’s estimate, around 645 million people worldwide face hunger.
Russia, the aggressor state, continues to attack Ukrainian ports, sea routes, warehouses, domestic logistics and agricultural infrastructure, the publication states. Before the start of the full-scale invasion, Ukraine supplied 10% of global wheat exports, 15% of corn and 50% of sunflower oil.
Risks to exports from Ukraine
According to Daily Maverick, during the 2026 harvest season, grain exports from Ukraine fell by half compared with 2025 because of Russian attacks. By October, Ukraine may lack grain storage capacity, meaning that more than 9 million tonnes could spoil and farmers would not have the resources for planting in the next season.
The loss of the 2026 harvest, in the view of the article’s authors, could affect global food supplies throughout 2027 as well. The blocking of Ukraine’s trade routes, in their assessment, raises food prices and worsens the situation of vulnerable population groups, including in Gaza and Sudan.
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The impact of El Niño in southern Africa
The publication also identifies El Niño as a risk factor. Over the next two to three months before the planting season, the region is forecast to face a rainfall deficit, delayed rains and above-average temperatures. Such conditions could significantly reduce yields, deplete pastures and water reserves.
In southern Africa, according to the cited estimates, more than 12.8 million people are experiencing acute food insecurity. During the previous El Niño in 2023–2024, 30 million people experienced acute food shortages, and six countries declared a state of emergency. The European Union said it would work with the Southern African Development Community and the Intergovernmental Authority on Development to coordinate a regional response.
The authors of the article emphasize the need for safe passage of vessels through the Black Sea and the Middle East region, as well as an end to attacks on grain infrastructure and ports.
