Climate change and food shortages could increase conflict risks
Climate change, declining harvests and disruptions to trade chains could increase the risk of social instability and armed conflicts in vulnerable countries. The Climate-driven Agricultural Decline Index (CADI) identifies regions where changes in agriculture could intensify competition for land, water and other resources, Deutsche Welle English reports.
The index was developed by Hannes Mueller and his colleagues. According to the researcher at the Institute of Economic Analysis and the Barcelona School of Economics, the greatest losses in agricultural productivity are occurring in tropical regions. Declines in food production are already being felt in Cambodia, Bangladesh, Burundi, Nigeria, Paraguay and El Salvador, among others. Mueller also called for greater attention to North Africa.
Productivity changes and competition
Droughts and extreme weather events are damaging crops in many parts of the world, while the development of El Niño could worsen food shortages for millions of people next year. Wars, trade disruptions, export bans and rising fertilizer prices are further exacerbating food insecurity. The war in Ukraine has repeatedly affected grain markets, while the impact of the war in Iran on the Strait of Hormuz has led to higher fuel and fertilizer prices.
According to an estimate, over the next 25 years, nearly half of the world's population could live in areas where farms will produce less food. At the same time, the CADI study indicates that the risk of violence may be increased not only by losses but also by growth in agricultural productivity. Land that was previously unproductive may become more valuable, attract investors and trigger disputes over ownership and access to resources.
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Mueller cited Sudan as an example: the country as a whole may produce more food as a result of climate change, while individual areas will simultaneously experience losses. This could create new winners and losers and intensify tensions. In Europe, major sparkling wine producers are already buying plots in mountainous areas, anticipating that the land will be suitable for viticulture in the future.
South Asia and the Sahel
Abdullah Fahimi of the German Council on Foreign Relations named South Asia and the Sahel as regions that should be monitored particularly closely due to climate vulnerability and rapid population growth. South Asia, home to about 2 billion people, depends on imports of wheat, corn and palm oil. At the same time, its agriculture is threatened by heatwaves, floods, declining land productivity and saltwater intrusion caused by rising sea levels.
Fahimi noted that the Himalayas and the Hindu Kush provide most of the water for the region's agriculture and drinking needs. Melting glaciers and snow may increase water availability in the short term, but later this century, in his assessment, will create a risk of a major humanitarian crisis. Researchers emphasize that climate and food shocks do not automatically lead to conflict: institutions capable of helping communities negotiate access to land, water and jobs are important.
