Corn prices in Ukraine have fallen to 5,000 UAH per metric ton despite rising grain prices in Europe

Purchasing prices for corn in Ukraine fell by 300–500 UAH per metric ton over the past week and now stand at 4,500–5,000 UAH/metric ton on EXW-elevator terms. The domestic market is under pressure from higher logistics costs and delays in grain shipments, while prices in Europe are rising due to a worsening corn harvest forecast in the EU.

 

Corn prices in Ukraine continue to decline due to rising costs of road and rail transportation to Danube ports and western terminals. Logistics costs are rising due to delays in unloading and a lack of available space, which is putting further pressure on the domestic market.

As of October 12, farmers had harvested 3.486 million metric tons of corn from 589,400 hectares, or 13% of the planted area. The average yield is 5.91 metric tons per hectare. As grain supply increases, prices are falling, although farmers are still trying to sell their first batches at higher prices.

In the first 12 days of October, Ukraine exported only 78 thousand metric tons of corn, compared to 223 thousand metric tons during the same period last year. At the same time, since the start of the marketing season, exports have reached 2 million metric tons, compared to 1.138 million metric tons during the same period last year. This result was driven by active shipments in July and August.

Over the past week, purchase prices for corn on EXW-elevator terms fell by 300–500 UAH/metric ton—to 4,500–5,000 UAH/metric ton.

Demand for grain delivered to Danube terminals also weakened: prices fell by $10/metric ton to $160–165/metric ton, or about 8,000 UAH/metric ton. For November deliveries, the quoted price is around $150/metric ton.

At western terminals, bid prices remain in the range of 8,000–8,500 UAH/metric ton, or $165–175/metric ton. Meanwhile, contracts for February deliveries are priced at $185–190/metric ton.

On the European market, corn prices are rising due to a downward revision of the EU harvest forecast. Expected production has been cut by 2.6 million metric tons—to 48 million metric tons, down from the previous estimate of 56.8 million metric tons. One of the reasons was a 38% drop in yields in France due to drought. The weakening of the euro against the dollar is providing additional support to prices.

Over the week, March corn futures on the Paris exchange rose 3.2% to €280.75/metric ton, or $314/metric ton. The monthly increase was 7.3%. November contracts, which expire on October 25, rose to €303/metric ton, indicating limited supply for near-term deliveries.

In contrast, prices in the U.S. are falling. Following the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) upward revision of the corn production forecast, December futures in Chicago lost 4.6% over the week and fell to $189 per metric ton. This is 11.5% less than a month ago.

The U.S. market is also under pressure from substantial opening stocks and favorable weather conditions in Brazil, which are improving the outlook for the new crop. As of October 11, 33% of the U.S. corn acreage had been harvested, compared to an average of 39% over the past four years. The forecast for dry and warm weather over the next 7–10 days could accelerate the harvest and put further pressure on prices.

In Brazil and Argentina, favorable rainfall is creating conditions for planting, and farmers are considering expanding their planted acreage.

The USDA also lowered its forecast for China’s feed corn consumption in the 2026/27 marketing year from 209.6 million to 200.5 million metric tons. This was due to the increased use of alternative feed ingredients, particularly soybean meal, amid rising soybean imports and processing.

The decline in Chinese demand is expected to outweigh the growth in demand in the European Union. Under these conditions, the U.S. may increase corn shipments to the EU in the coming months, which will intensify competition for Ukrainian grain and limit demand for it.

Source: Grain Exchange

As a reminder, berry prices are rising in Ukraine due to a European shortage.

Changes in the dollar exchange rate may affect the cost of a number of products in Ukrainian stores. Goods that Ukraine imports or produces from foreign raw materials are most at risk of becoming more expensive.

Ukraine has seen a rise in wholesale prices for domestically grown tomatoes. At the capital’s wholesale market, red, pink, and ground tomatoes have become more expensive. At the same time, prices in retail chains vary significantly depending on the type of product, region, and the availability of special promotional offers.