ANZ raises Brent forecast to $105 per barrel — OilPrice

ANZ Bank has raised its forecast for the price of Brent oil at the end of 2026 by $10, to about $105 per barrel. As OilPrice reports, the bank expects oil exports from the Middle East, vessel availability, and fuel supplies to remain constrained until December.

Forecast without a new shock

ANZ strategists noted that their forecast does not envisage a new geopolitical shock. It is based on the assumption that the current constraints on Middle Eastern exports, shipping, and the oil products market will remain in place until the end of the year.

According to the bank's assessment, global markets have lost a significant portion of the reserves that could mitigate new shocks. ANZ said that eight months of adapting to supply disruptions from the Middle East had substantially weakened such buffers. At the same time, further escalation in the region could push prices even higher, according to the bank.

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UBS and Goldman Sachs assessments

Earlier, UBS also revised its Brent forecast for the end of 2026, from $100 to $110 per barrel. The bank attributed this to uncertainty surrounding the conflict in the Middle East, production and export volumes from the region, and global oil demand.

Goldman Sachs expects Brent to cost $90 per barrel at the end of the year, with the average price in 2027 at $80. At the same time, the bank believes that risks to this forecast are skewed to the upside. Goldman Sachs estimates the risk premium embedded in the Brent price at about $27 per barrel.

OilPrice also writes that oil prices are heading for a fourth consecutive monthly increase amid an escalation of Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia and expectations of possible new US and Israeli strikes on Iran.