EU may face a gas shortfall of up to 14 bcm in winter — Politico Europe
In Brussels, Belgium, it was reported that the European Union may face a shortfall of up to 14 billion cubic meters of natural gas in the winter of 2026–2027. This amounts to about 7% of the bloc’s demand and corresponds to the volume of energy for 10–12 million European households, Politico Europe reports, citing an assessment by the U.S. think tank Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis.
Low stock levels
EU gas reserves have fallen to just over 70%, the lowest level for this time of year since records began in 2011. According to the publication, high prices made it more profitable for traders to sell gas in summer rather than inject it into storage facilities ahead of winter.
IEEFA notes that in the event of a cold winter, Europe will have limited opportunities to obtain additional volumes of gas. This does not mean that the EU will necessarily run out of the resource, but storage facilities may contain 7 billion cubic meters less gas to cover winter demand. Analysts also link the limited supplies to disruptions in the global energy market caused by the war in Iran.
More current news is available on the UA.News Telegram channel Telegram.
Risks for prices and consumers
The European Network of Transmission System Operators for Gas, ENTSO-G, warned in its forecast for the winter of 2026–2027 that, with limited or even optimal imports of liquefied natural gas during a cold winter, stock levels could fall to 11%. This is the level needed for strategic reserves, which are not easy to use.
If EU countries seek to end the winter with reserves at 30%, they will have to reduce consumption or fail to supply consumers with volumes equivalent to 7% of demand, the ENTSO-G forecast says. According to IEEFA, an additional pressure will be created by the EU ban on long-term contracts for supplies of Russian LNG, which is due to take effect in January and could reduce imports by another 7 billion cubic meters.
An alternative could be purchasing additional LNG, which the EU is increasingly receiving from the United States. At current prices, replacing the lost volumes would cost Europeans approximately €3 billion extra, 12% more than last year, IEEFA notes.
