US debt to external creditors exceeds GDP — The Hill

In the United States, federal government debt to external creditors as of September 30 exceeded the gross domestic product for fiscal year 2026, The Hill reports. According to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, the size of the economy from the fourth quarter of 2025 through the third quarter of 2026 exceeded $32.2 trillion without seasonal adjustment. At the same time, debt held by the public exceeded $32.4 trillion.

Which debt is compared with GDP

Debt held by the public includes federal government obligations to external entities, including banks, state and local governments, as well as foreign countries. Total US national debt, which also includes government obligations to its own funds and institutions, exceeded $40.5 trillion as of Wednesday.

In August, the country’s total debt crossed the $40 trillion mark for the first time. At the beginning of the century, it stood at approximately $5.7 trillion, and at the start of Donald Trump’s second presidential term, it was $36.2 trillion.

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Congressional Budget Office forecast

The ratio of debt to external creditors to GDP in fiscal year 2026 was less than 100.1%. This is below the February forecast of the independent US Congressional Budget Office, which expected the figure to be 101%.

At the same time, the office forecasts that by 2036, the debt-to-GDP ratio will rise to 120%, exceeding the historical high of 106% recorded in 1946. According to the Congressional Budget Office’s estimate, the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, signed by Trump in July 2025, will add $4.7 trillion to the national debt by 2035. This law also raised the statutory US debt limit from $36 trillion to $41 trillion.