China's real GDP grew by 4.5% in the third quarter — Fortune
China's real gross domestic product grew by 4.5% year on year in the third quarter of 2026. This was slightly above the consensus forecast of 4.4%, Goldman Sachs economist Hui Shan noted, Fortune reports.
Industry and consumption
According to Shan, indicators of economic activity in September were also stronger than analysts had expected. Industrial production growth accelerated to 5.5% year on year, while retail sales exceeded forecasts.
She believes that China's target of 4.5–5% economic growth in 2026 is achievable. By comparison, U.S. GDP growth rates in the first and second quarters were 2.5% and 2.2%, respectively, according to U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis data cited by the publication.
At the same time, the United States remains the world's largest economy, and GDP per capita there is substantially higher. The International Monetary Fund estimates this figure at $15,370 in China and more than $95,000 in the United States.
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Deficit and trade
Shan noted that China's fiscal data indicate an effective tightening of fiscal policy. During the first nine months of the year, combined revenues of the general budget and state-managed funds rose by 1.4% year on year, while spending declined by 3.5%.
According to Goldman Sachs estimates, China's augmented fiscal deficit narrowed from 11% of GDP in December 2025 to 9.4% of GDP in September 2026 on a rolling 12-month basis. The bank lowered its forecast for this indicator for all of 2026 to 10% of GDP from the previous 11.5%, although it expects more noticeable fiscal easing in the fourth quarter.
Amid the trade confrontation with the United States, the Chinese government reported that the country's exports in September rose by 36.3% compared with the same period last year, the fastest pace since February. According to the Peterson Institute for International Economics as of August, Chinese tariffs on U.S. exports stood at 31.9%, while U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports were 35.2%.
