Most Ukrainians do not believe the war will end before the second half of 2027 — KMIS

More than half of Ukrainians—56%—believe that the war will not end before the second half of 2027. At the same time, 62% of those surveyed said they are prepared to endure the war for as long as necessary.

When Ukrainians Expect the War to End

According to the survey results, only 10% of respondents believe the war will end by the end of 2026.

Another 13% expect it to end in the first half of 2027.

In contrast, 56% of respondents predict that hostilities will continue until the second half of 2027 or longer. Another 21% were undecided.

KMIS notes that these results indicate that expectations of a prolonged war prevail among Ukrainians.

62% of Ukrainians are prepared to endure the war for as long as necessary

Despite expectations of a protracted war, the majority of respondents declare their willingness to endure it without a specific time limit.

Specifically, 62% of respondents said they are prepared to endure the war for as long as necessary.

Another 4% cited one year as an acceptable duration, while 21% said anywhere from a few months to half a year. Thirteen percent were undecided.

Sociologists also compared the results of surveys conducted on different days in October.

Among respondents surveyed on October 8–9, 60% expressed a willingness to endure the war for as long as necessary. Among those surveyed on October 10–16, this figure stood at 63%.

The difference falls within the margin of error. 

“We also do not see that the pressure campaign has led to demoralization at this point,” KMIS emphasized. 

Separately, sociologists drew attention to the sentiments of Kyiv residents. According to their data, despite the pressure on the capital’s residents, the overwhelming majority of Kyiv residents remain willing to endure the war for as long as necessary. Compared to mid-September, this figure has not changed significantly.

92% of Ukrainians view Russian strikes as an attempt to force Ukraine to surrender

During the survey, respondents were also asked about the purpose of Russian strikes on Ukraine’s economic infrastructure.

The overwhelming majority—92%—believe that Russia is trying to destroy the Ukrainian economy and make life unbearable for the population in order to force Ukraine to surrender.

The remaining 5% of respondents hold a different view.

Specifically, 3% believe that Russia is allegedly carrying out strikes in response to Ukrainian attacks on its economic targets.

Another 2% are convinced that Russian troops are attacking only military-related targets and do not aim to destroy the Ukrainian economy. 

How the survey was conducted

The Kyiv International Institute of Sociology conducted the nationwide “Omnibus” public opinion poll from October 8 to 16, 2026.

Using telephone interviews based on a random sample of mobile phone numbers, 1,031 adult citizens of Ukraine residing in territory controlled by the Ukrainian government were surveyed.

The sample did not include residents of temporarily occupied territories or citizens who left the country after February 24, 2022. However, the respondents did include internally displaced persons.

Under normal circumstances, the maximum statistical margin of error for indicators close to 50% does not exceed 4%. Sociologists note that additional systematic deviations are possible during wartime, but they consider the results sufficiently representative for analyzing public sentiment. 

This is evidenced by the results of a poll conducted by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) from October 8–16, 2026.
 

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