Ukraine Has Its Best Chance in Nearly Four Years to Change the Course of the War — ISW
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) believes that Ukraine currently has its best opportunity since December 2022 to seize the strategic initiative in the war against Russia. At the same time, analysts warn that the U.S. and European countries risk missing this opportunity.
“Ukraine currently has its best chance to seize the strategic initiative in the war against Russia (compared to the period after December 2022), but at the same time faces the greatest threat to maintaining its current momentum,” the report states.
The ISW notes that the intensification of attacks on Ukraine and hybrid operations against NATO countries are intended to force Ukraine and its allies to act solely in response and to distract them from seizing the strategic initiative.
The Kremlin’s proposal to supply diesel to global markets also serves to slow down an effective campaign of pressure on the Russian energy sector.
“Unlike the U.S. and Ukraine’s other partners, the Kremlin realizes that Russia is extremely vulnerable to initiative, the dynamics of events, and sustained pressure. The Kremlin is closely monitoring the situation to ensure that Ukraine and its partners do not seize the initiative, and is striving at all costs to prevent this and thwart their plans. The United States and Europe can either counter the Kremlin’s strategy or risk a larger-scale war with greater risks of escalation,” the analysts explain.
The Institute for the Study of War emphasized that Ukraine has regained operational initiative on most key fronts and has been countering Russia’s strategic initiative since late 2025.
In 2026, Ukraine slowed the advance of Russian troops and increased Russia’s casualties. This year, the Ukrainian Armed Forces have liberated at least 1,046 square kilometers, effectively nullifying all of Russia’s territorial gains for the year.
The ISW estimates that since the beginning of 2026, the net increase in territory captured by Russia has been only about 100 square kilometers. The average daily rate of net advancement by Russian forces in 2026 currently stands at less than one square kilometer per day.
“Russia’s summer offensive has failed. Russia’s fall offensive is also likely to fail. As of today, Russian President Vladimir Putin has not achieved any of his stated war aims in Ukraine,” the report states.
At the same time, Ukraine has caused internal problems in Russia, particularly a fuel shortage. Analysts do not consider the Defense Forces’ successes on the battlefield in 2026 to be temporary or accidental—they were the result of increased combat capabilities and military transformation that took place during 2025–2026.
“Ukraine’s partners must learn what is perhaps the most important lesson of this war: it is necessary to recognize (and counter) the Kremlin’s strategy aimed at depriving Ukraine and its partners of the initiative,” the ISW emphasized.
Source: ISW.
Video: A Ukrainian heavy drone delivered a mined ground-based robotic system behind Russian lines.
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