Ukraine has lost a third of its export potential
In August, Ukraine was able to export about 1.7 million metric tons of agricultural products. Due to Russian attacks on ports, this is only about one-third of the volume the country could have exported if logistics had been operating normally.
Ukraine exported about 1.7 million metric tons of agricultural products in August. Due to Russian attacks on port infrastructure, some of the cargo had to be routed via alternative routes. As a result, the actual volume of exports amounted to approximately one-third of the potential volume. In other words, the problem right now is not a lack of Ukrainian food, but primarily how quickly it can be delivered to other countries.
Despite the challenging logistics situation, Ukraine has enough food for domestic consumption. This was stated by Taras Vysotsky, Ukraine’s Minister of Agrarian Policy and Food. According to him, there is currently no reason to expect a prolonged shortage of staple foods.
There is enough food for Ukrainians
Vysotsky emphasized that Ukrainian production is currently capable of supplying the domestic market with the necessary food products. “In terms of the production volumes we have available and the balance of long-term shortages, none are currently anticipated for any type of product,” the minister said. In other words, even if export opportunities are currently limited, this does not mean that Ukrainians will lack food.
According to Vysotsky, Ukrainian logistics have become more flexible in recent years. Whereas previously a significant portion of goods traveled along long, standard routes, businesses are now increasingly using shorter and more direct delivery routes.
For example, products can go from the manufacturer to a small warehouse and from there directly to the store. In some cases, the warehouse is eliminated from the chain entirely—the goods go directly from the manufacturer to the store. “Logistics has become more diversified. The classic ‘manufacturer–large warehouse–store’ model still exists in some cases, but the ‘manufacturer–small warehouse–store’ or direct ‘manufacturer–store’ chains are being used more and more,” Vysotsky explained. This approach is used not only for Ukrainian products. Supply routes for imported goods are being restructured in a similar way.
Imported products should also continue to arrive without interruption
Separately, the minister stated that no problems with long-term supplies of imported food are currently anticipated. The reason is that logistics through Ukrainian border crossings continue to function. Goods can enter Ukraine by road, rail, and other available routes. “Logistics through border crossing points are functioning, so a long-term shortage of imported food products is not currently anticipated either,” Vysotsky noted.
This means that even if there are problems with sea routes, Ukraine has other channels for supplying goods. At the same time, alternative logistics are usually more expensive. If cargo has to be transported via a longer route or through more intermediate points, this may ultimately affect the price of the goods.
Food prices may rise
According to the minister’s estimate, changes in logistics chains could cause the overall cost of food to rise by approximately 2.5%. However, this is just one of the factors affecting food prices. The final cost may also be influenced by prices for fuel, electricity, gas, and other energy sources. For the agricultural sector, the costs of feed, fertilizers, and transportation are also important.
Therefore, even if production remains stable, rising logistics costs may gradually be reflected in store prices. At the same time, Vysotsky does not foresee a situation in which Ukrainians would be left without basic foodstuffs due to export or logistics problems.
Ukraine consumes most of its own food
Another important point is that a significant portion of Ukrainian food is not intended for export at all. According to Vysotsky, about 70–80% of food products—excluding grains and oilseeds—are consumed within Ukraine. Therefore, export issues do not automatically mean problems with stocking Ukrainian stores.
This is especially true for the vegetables used in borscht. Their production is primarily geared toward Ukrainian consumers, and the share of exports remains small. In other words, Ukraine continues to produce enough for the domestic market even when some export routes are operating with restrictions.
What Ukraine Continues to Export
Despite attacks on ports and more complicated logistics, the Ukrainian agricultural sector has not stopped exporting. A wide range of products continues to be shipped abroad. These include grains, frozen foods, sugar, oil, dairy products, eggs, and certain types of fruit.
Grain and oilseed crops are of particular importance to Ukrainian exports. They traditionally account for a significant portion of Ukraine’s agricultural shipments to foreign markets. But now, producers and exporters must factor in the constant risk of attacks on port infrastructure.
Russian strikes on ports can damage warehouses, terminals, and other facilities through which export cargo passes. As a result, some of the products must be rerouted.
Why Ukraine Cannot Export Its Full Potential Volume
The figure of 1.7 million metric tons in August is significant not only in and of itself. It highlights the gap between how much Ukraine can actually export and how much it manages to ship under wartime conditions. Ukrainian farmers continue to grow crops, but the produce must be delivered to buyers. If port infrastructure is damaged or operating intermittently, a logistical “bottleneck” arises. As a result, produce may remain in warehouses longer, and its transportation becomes more expensive and slower.
This is precisely why Russian attacks on Ukrainian ports do more than just target individual infrastructure facilities. They directly impact Ukraine’s ability to generate revenue from exporting its products. This is particularly important for the agricultural sector, as exports allow for the sale of surplus crops abroad, generate foreign currency revenue, and support the operations of farmers and businesses.
What Will Happen to Food Supplies in Ukraine
At present, the Ukrainian government’s main conclusion is this: no long-term shortage of staple foods is expected. Production is sufficient, and the domestic market is largely supplied by Ukrainian products. In addition, import channels and alternative delivery routes remain operational.
At the same time, logistical challenges may affect prices. In particular, higher transportation costs and rising prices for fuel and energy may drive up the final price of food products. For the Ukrainian agricultural sector, export logistics remain the main challenge.
In August, the country managed to export about 1.7 million metric tons of agricultural products, but this is only about one-third of the potential volume. Therefore, the longer Russia continues to attack Ukrainian ports, the more important alternative routes and Ukraine’s ability to quickly reorganize its logistics will become.
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