Experts explained when Ukraine might begin shooting down Shahid drones on a large scale
The Ukrainian Council of Arms Manufacturers states that the technical barrier to countering “Geran” rocket-powered drones has already been overcome. At the same time, experts do not expect these drones to be shot down on a large scale within the next month.
According to the Ukrainian Arms Council, Ukraine already has the technical capabilities to counter the “Shahed” drones, but their widespread destruction will require additional time.
Experts cite various timeframes for ramping up production of interceptors: ranging from two to three months to the fourth quarter.
Three Levels of Progress
The Arms Manufacturers Council identifies three levels of progress: isolated shoot-downs using new systems, regular shoot-downs by various crews, and a scale that alters overall defense statistics. According to the association’s assessment, the first level has already been achieved, the second is currently taking shape, and the third depends on “months.”
The Council cites the following reasons why the situation will not change within a month: contracts are only being signed, crews still need to be trained, and the interceptors must be integrated into the target-acquisition system. October weather impairs the performance of optical guidance systems, and Russia is already installing jamming devices on the “Geran” to counter the interceptors. Realistically, according to the Rada, October is when we can expect the first production deliveries, successful test runs in various units, and the weeding out of weaker solutions.
Assessments by Experts and Manufacturers
Yurkov predicts a significant ramp-up in the production of jet interceptors over the next two to three months. The TSU emphasizes: “But it will be a major success if we integrate all key components and establish mass production during the fourth quarter.”
At “Vluchnik 200,” they say that everything depends on the meaning of the word “breakthrough.” They consider a sudden disappearance of the problem unlikely, but a gradual improvement in the situation in the skies—a certainty. The “Wild Hornets” pointed out that for the “Shaheds” with internal combustion engines, it took about a year from the appearance of effective interceptors to the destruction of the vast majority of such targets. The company hopes that with jet-powered threats, this process will proceed much more quickly.
According to various official estimates cited by the Arms Manufacturers Council, 55–60% of jet-powered drones are shot down, while over 90% of conventional “Shaheds” are shot down. According to the association, a true breakthrough will be evidenced by a steady increase in the share of downed jet-powered drones exceeding 60% in the Air Force’s reports.
This is reported in an article by RBC-Ukraine.
When Will Ukraine Have Interceptor Drones, and Who Will Be Held Accountable for the Failure of Air Defense: Experts’ Conclusions.
Ukraine plans to scale up production of drones to intercept jet-powered “Shaheds”—Koretsky.
As a reminder, the Ukrainian Defense Forces damaged five workshops at a military plant in Russia.
On the night of September 26, the Ukrainian Defense Forces struck a number of key facilities on Russian territory that support the Russian military machine. Among them were the Azov Optical-Mechanical Plant in the Rostov Region and the “Ilsky” oil refinery in the Krasnodar Region.
As a reminder, the Perm Oil Refinery in Russia ceased operations following an attack by Ukrainian drones on September 25. According to Reuters, a fire broke out at the facility, and pipelines, storage tanks, and processing units were damaged. It is not yet known when the refinery will be able to resume operations.
