ISW notes Russia's supply problems due to strikes by the Ukrainian Armed Forces
Ukrainian defense forces have intensified their strikes on Russian logistics in the occupied territories, which is already forcing the occupying authorities to restrict traffic on key routes. ISW analysts say this is creating systemic supply problems for Russian troops and slowing down their operations on the front lines.
In recent months, Ukrainian defense forces have significantly increased their strikes on the Russian army’s transport routes and military logistics in the temporarily occupied territories, and this is already beginning to affect not only the movement of equipment but also the enemy’s overall ability to conduct combat operations without delays or disruptions. Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) note that such actions are gradually becoming one of the key factors hindering the advance of Russian troops in certain areas.
According to ISW, on May 21, the occupation administration of the Kherson region signed a decree restricting the movement of freight transport on the M-14 highway, which connects Mariupol, Berdyansk, Melitopol, and Henichesk, and is effectively one of the main land corridors between Russia and occupied Crimea. Analysts attribute this decision to the fact that the road has become too dangerous due to regular strikes by Ukrainian forces.
Open-source media have also released videos showing the aftermath of attacks on Russian military trucks on the M-14 highway and on the H-20 Mariupol–Donetsk route, which is also used to transport equipment and supplies. ISW emphasizes that strikes on ground supply lines create a ripple effect: the delivery of ammunition, equipment, and reinforcements is disrupted, which immediately impacts the intensity of combat operations.
Analysts also note that traffic restrictions on the key highway imposed by the occupying administration are indirect confirmation of the effectiveness of Ukrainian attacks, as routes that were recently considered relatively safe are now being forced to change or partially close. The ISW concludes that strikes against Russian logistics are becoming one of the factors that systematically complicate the occupation forces’ ability to hold their positions and advance on the front lines.
Estonian intelligence stated that Russia is approaching the point where it will lose the ability to dictate the terms of the war against Ukraine, as the front has effectively reached a stalemate, and serious economic and social problems are mounting within Russia itself.
