Model found no point of no return for AMOC collapse — TimesLIVE

A study by the Danish Meteorological Institute found that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), weakened by global warming, may gradually recover if global temperatures begin to decline. As TimesLIVE reports, the work was published in the journal Science Advances.

What the model showed

AMOC carries warm water from the tropics northward, toward the Arctic, and this flow helps maintain milder winters in Europe. In the model, the authors found no irreversible point after which the circulation would inevitably collapse. According to their calculations, with global warming of about 7°C, its intensity could decrease from around 17 million to 6 million cubic metres of water per second.

The study’s lead author, Chunchen Guo, noted that in the model the circulation weakens gradually and begins to recover immediately after global warming reverses. At the same time, full recovery may take several centuries, and the effects of weakened currents will persist throughout that period.

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Risks of weakening currents

Disruption of the AMOC can still destabilize precipitation patterns around the world and accelerate sea-level rise near coastlines. An additional factor weakening the circulation is the inflow of cold freshwater into the ocean from the melting Greenland ice sheet.

The researchers also noted that once the Greenland ice sheet melts, it could not be restored even if warming were reversed. By their estimate, melting of the ice sheet after warming of 1.5°C would cause a long-term sea-level rise of about 20 cm.

The 7°C warming scenario was used for scientific analysis and significantly exceeds current projections. The authors cautioned that the pace of cooling needed to restore the AMOC exceeds what is currently considered realistic with existing technologies. The study is based on one model and requires verification using other models.