IMF: AI-related trade grew by 29% in two years — Cyprus Mail

Demand for artificial intelligence technologies supported economic growth in China, India and other Asian countries, while AI-related trade outpaced the overall rate of global trade growth. IMF Chief Economist Silvana Tenreyro said this in Bangkok, Thailand, at the annual meetings of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, Cyprus Mail reports.

AI’s contribution to global trade

According to Tenreyro, total global trade grew by 8.3% in 2023–2025, while trade in the AI sector increased by 29%. Without the AI-related segment, overall global trade growth would have been only 4.6%.

She called the artificial intelligence-related investment and trade boom one of the key drivers of global growth. At the same time, AI supply chains are concentrated in a small number of countries and sectors, in her assessment, which could create potential bottlenecks.

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Risks to financial stability

The IMF also pointed to the risks of a correction in market valuations and AI-related cyber threats, which could weaken growth and increase risks to financial stability.

The fund’s baseline forecast envisages that the current boom will gradually fade. In another scenario, the IMF allows that more prolonged growth in the AI sector, provided there is a real increase in productivity, could contain the inflationary effect. If the boom persists without productivity gains, the economic effect will be smaller and inflation higher. Tenreyro added that the fund is updating research on the impact of artificial intelligence on jobs.

Debt and monetary policy

The IMF Chief Economist also noted that the fund is concerned about high debt levels. She called on countries to reduce budget deficits and central banks to pursue tighter policies, including raising interest rates to bring inflation back to target levels.