Joint Polish coalition list could give it 228 seats — Interia

In Poland, a joint list of the Civic Coalition (KO), The Left, the Polish People’s Party (PSL), and Poland 2050 could bring these forces 228 seats in the 460-seat Sejm. Under a scenario in which KO and The Left run separately, they would together receive 217 seats, according to a United Surveys by IBRiS poll for Wirtualna Polska, as reported by Interia.

Separate lists

Under the option in which the ruling coalition’s parties contest the election separately, the Civic Coalition could count on 29.7% of the vote, Law and Justice on 17.2%, and Confederation on 13.2%. The Left would receive 7.3%, Rozwój Plus 6.2%, PSL 4.4%, the Razem party 3.2%, and Poland 2050 0.4%.

PSL and Poland 2050 would not clear the 5% electoral threshold under this arrangement. The seat calculation provides for 187 seats for KO, 99 for PiS, 72 for Confederation, 49 for Confederation of the Polish Crown, 30 for The Left, and 23 for Rozwój Plus. Right-wing forces would have 243 seats in total, while KO and The Left would have 217.

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Single-list option

If KO, The Left, PSL, and Poland 2050 put forward a joint list called the “October 15 Coalition,” it would receive 39.4%. PiS would have 19.5% in this option, Confederation 13.9%, Confederation of the Polish Crown 10.8%, and Rozwój Plus 5.5%. Razem, with 4.1%, would not clear the electoral threshold.

According to the model, the joint list would receive 228 seats, PiS 103, Confederation 67, Confederation of the Polish Crown 48, and Rozwój Plus 14. Right-wing parties together would have 232 seats — one more than the minimum of 231 seats needed for a parliamentary majority. The poll was conducted on October 16–18, 2026, using CATI and CAWI methods among 1,000 adult Poles. Seats were allocated using a calculator by Professor Jarosław Flis, for which a typical margin-of-error range of plus or minus 3–5 seats is indicated.