China may launch its fourth aircraft carrier in 2027, South China Morning Post reports
China may launch its fourth aircraft carrier, known as Type 004, in late 2027 or early 2028. Analysts at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington made this forecast based on new satellite images, South China Morning Post reports.
The ship is being built in a dry dock at a shipyard in Dalian, in northeastern China. In the released images, the aircraft carrier does not yet have a flight deck or an island superstructure. CSIS noted that the current stage of work resembles the condition of China's third aircraft carrier, Fujian, in May 2021 — about a year before its launch in June 2022.
Dimensions and propulsion system
According to CSIS estimates, the unfinished Type 004 hull is about 322 meters long and 46 meters wide. Another satellite imagery analyst, who wished to remain anonymous, estimated the hull's length at 327 meters. After the flight deck is installed, the ship's overall length could reach 339 meters, making it comparable in length to the largest aircraft carriers of the U.S. Navy.
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Analysts estimate that Type 004 may receive nuclear propulsion and an electromagnetic aircraft launch system. However, it is unknown when and where the reactors will be installed. Bradley Martin, a senior researcher at the Rand Corporation, noted that the complexity of integrating a nuclear power plant could affect the timeline for the ship's operational readiness.
From launch to service
Launching does not mean the aircraft carrier will immediately enter service. Fujian was commissioned into the fleet in November 2025 — more than three years after its launch. According to Martin, two to three years could pass between the launch of Type 004 and the ship's actual operational readiness if the integration of the nuclear power plant proves difficult.
The ship's launch in 2027 would coincide with the centenary of the People's Liberation Army of China, which will be marked on August 1. Beijing does not disclose aircraft carrier construction schedules.
