IMF forecasts Kazakhstan’s economy to grow by 4.9% in 2027 — Euronews
The International Monetary Fund forecasts that Kazakhstan’s economy will grow by 4.9% in 2027 after expected growth of 4.4% in 2026. As Euronews reports, the forecast is contained in the October edition of the World Economic Outlook.
Expected growth in 2026 will be lower than the 2025 figure, when Kazakhstan’s economy expanded by 6.5%. At the same time, the IMF expects Kazakhstan to have the highest economic growth rate among oil-exporting countries in the Middle East and Central Asia group in 2026.
Impact of the situation on the oil market
The IMF noted that oil markets are being affected by geopolitical tensions and the conflict between the United States and Iran. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz in March disrupted the transportation of approximately 20% of global oil supplies, or about 20 million barrels per day.
To compensate for supply shortages, oil producers outside the Persian Gulf, including Kazakhstan, Brazil, the United States and Venezuela, increased production. The IMF’s baseline scenario envisages the strait reopening in March 2027 and a broader return to pre-war conditions in October of the same year.
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Forecasts for the region and the global economy
The IMF expects commodity prices, remittances and reforms to support the economies of the Caucasus and Central Asia. Uzbekistan is forecast to grow by 7.8% in 2026 and 6.5% in 2027, Kyrgyzstan by 9% and 7% respectively, and Tajikistan by 7.3% and 6.8%.
The Fund also drew attention to demand for semiconductors and other technological equipment, which could create opportunities for commodity exporters, including Kazakhstan. At the same time, the IMF warned that the long-term sustainability of the investment boom around artificial intelligence remains uncertain.
According to the IMF’s forecast, the global economy will grow by 3.1% in 2026 after 3.5% in 2025, while growth could accelerate to 3.4% in 2027.
