NBP expects 4.2% inflation in Poland in 2027 — RMF24

The National Bank of Poland has released a new forecast under which inflation in the country will amount to 4.2% in 2027, following 3.1% in 2026. In 2028, the rate of consumer price growth is expected to decline to 2.8% under the bank’s central scenario, RMF24 reports.

Inflation forecast

The estimates are contained in the new “Inflation Report,” which also covers the economic growth forecast. The projection was prepared on the assumption that interest rates will remain unchanged.

The central bank points to rising prices for energy and agricultural commodities on global markets. Since the previous forecast, published in July, prices for both commodity groups have risen again.

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Energy, food and economic growth

As the NBP noted, higher commodity prices will contribute to more noticeable growth in domestic energy prices in 2026–2027. With a certain delay, this factor will also affect core inflation and food prices.

In 2028, the impact of these factors is expected to weaken due to the anticipated decline in energy commodity prices. The bank also forecasts Poland’s GDP growth at 3.6% in 2026 and 2.8% in 2027 and 2028. According to the NBP, the projected economic dynamics for 2026–2028 are generally close to the July scenario.