China may import more than 10 million barrels of oil per day in October — OilPrice
China is likely to increase crude oil imports to more than 10 million barrels per day in October 2026, the highest level since March. Higher supplies could reduce the country’s need to draw on its large commercial and strategic reserves, OilPrice reports, citing Kpler data referenced by Reuters.
China drew on reserves
According to the publication, after oil prices rose above $100 per barrel, China reduced purchases and drew on crude oil reserves during most months after March. Before the start of the war with Iran, the country had reportedly accumulated up to 1.4 billion barrels in commercial and strategic storage facilities.
In September, China reduced its reserves by an average of about 530,000 barrels per day. Reuters columnist Clyde Russell made this estimate based on official figures for imports, domestic production and refining volumes, as China does not publish crude oil inventory data.
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Last month, total crude oil supply — from imports and domestic production — amounted to about 13.46 million barrels per day, while refineries processed approximately 13.99 million barrels. Despite the drawdown in reserves during the year, China still had at least 1.2 billion barrels of crude oil in commercial and strategic storage facilities, according to OilPrice’s estimate.
Fourth-quarter outlook
Imports in October may rise due to purchases made in August, when Brent was mostly priced at around $80 per barrel. The publication also links the possible increase in supplies to higher oil flows from the Middle East and the recovery of Chinese petroleum product exports.
At the same time, analysts at FGE NexantECA and Energy Aspects lowered their previous forecast for Chinese crude oil imports in the fourth quarter by about 400,000 barrels per day. They now expect 9.2–9.3 million barrels per day, significantly below last year’s average of 11.6 million barrels per day. If prices remain high, China may again make more active use of accumulated reserves instead of increasing purchases.
