XM estimates Colombia’s energy deficit at 7,669 GWh — The Rio Times
Colombia’s national energy system operator XM has estimated the possible gap between firm energy and projected demand in 2026–2027 at 7,669 GWh, or 8.3% of expected consumption. The Rio Times reports this, citing the business publication Portafolio, which provided data from XM’s energy bulletin dated October 16, 2026.
This refers to firm energy — electricity that generators can commit to supplying even in a dry year. Such a calculation is an indicator of risk to the power system, not a forecast of inevitable outages. As of the time of publication, no decision on electricity rationing had been made in the country.
The impact of drought on the energy system
Colombia’s energy system depends heavily on hydroelectric power plants. According to data cited by Portafolio, on October 15, water inflows into rivers stood at 60.46% of the historical average, while the partial reservoir level was 77.86%. The situation is affected by the development of the El Niño phenomenon, which dries up the rivers that feed Colombian dams.
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XM modeled a hydrological scenario similar to the conditions of 2015–2017. Under such developments, and provided that thermal generation produces no more than 85 GWh per day through April 2027, the system may not fully meet demand from February through April 2027.
Estimates for the coming years
Portafolio also cites XM’s estimates for subsequent periods: 8,015 GWh in 2027–2028, 10,300 GWh in 2028–2029, and 10,603 GWh in 2029–2030. For 2025–2026, the publication indicates a gap of 4,979 GWh, or 5.6% of projected average demand.
According to XM, electricity demand in the country rose by 23.6% from December 2019, and in October 2026 it was 4.4% higher than in October of the previous year. The operator proposes supplying thermal power plants with fuel, speeding up new energy and grid projects, developing distributed generation, and taking measures to save electricity.
