University of Lima models Peru’s GDP growth at 2% in 2027 — The Rio Times
Peru’s economy could grow by 2% in 2027 under an adverse scenario if the coastal El Niño phenomenon lasts until the third or fourth quarter of the year. The Rio Times cites this scenario assessment by the Economic, Financial and Social Observatory of the University of Lima, The Rio Times.
Two scenarios for the economy
Under a milder scenario, which envisages an extraordinarily strong El Niño through the second quarter of 2027 and the implementation of 50% of budget measures for repairs and infrastructure, Peru’s GDP could grow by 3%. The worse option envisages the phenomenon continuing into the third or fourth quarter, weaker global economic growth, and the implementation of only 30% of such measures.
University of Lima economist Julio del Castillo said that private investment is expected to end 2026 with growth of more than 14%, but could grow by about 6.5% in 2027, as companies postpone projects until the emergency ends. Among the possible consequences, he cited higher prices and disruptions to transport connections.
ENFEN forecast and vulnerable regions
The National Multisectoral Commission for the Study of El Niño, ENFEN, expects abnormally intense warming of waters off Peru’s coast to continue until February 2027, and the phenomenon itself until June. From November 2026 to January 2027, the commission forecasts above-normal rainfall on the northern and central coast, as well as in parts of the western highlands.
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The study identifies the regions of Tumbes, Piura, Lambayeque and La Libertad as the most vulnerable to heavy rains and flooding. Export agriculture, fishing and transport could face risks there. Landslides could also affect supply chains in Lima, Callao, Ancash and Ica.
Current indicators
Peru’s Ministry of Economy reported that the country’s GDP grew by 3.2% in August 2026 and by 3.1% from January through August. At the same time, fish catches fell by 17.3% in August, while output in the mining and hydrocarbons sector declined by 5.5%.
Peru’s agricultural exports reached $8.334 billion from January through August, 2.3% more than in the same period of the previous year. The largest products were avocados, blueberries and grapes, while the northern regions where they are grown are among the areas forecast to receive the heaviest rainfall.
