Texas data centers could return pollution to 2000s levels — The Verge

If all planned data centers are connected to Texas’ power grid with the expected generation mix, this could erase a decade of improvements in the state’s air quality within five years. This forecast is contained in a report by the Houston Advanced Research Center (HARC), as reported by The Verge.

Emissions forecast

Under this scenario, fine particulate matter emissions from the power sector would more than triple. This would be the highest level of such pollution since 2006.

Emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx), which contribute to smog formation, could rise by 136% and approach 2004 levels. Carbon dioxide emissions, researchers estimate, would be 90% higher than in 2025.

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Choice of electricity sources

HARC modeled different options based on three forecasts of data center energy demand. Some announced projects may not be completed, and the environmental impact can be limited by combining electricity from the grid with on-site generation using solar and wind power plants.

In that case, NOx emissions could be up to ten times lower. At the same time, the construction of gas engines directly at data center sites, which developers may resort to because of long waits for grid connections, could result in the highest pollution levels in HARC’s models.

Texas has 26 gigawatts of existing and under-construction data center capacity and is the leading market by this measure. According to a separate March report by Wood Mackenzie, the state is also preparing to host four times more proposed data center capacity powered by electricity generated directly on site than any other U.S. state. Developers often choose less efficient gas turbines to speed up construction.