By 2040, Ukraine's population could shrink to 25 million
Due to the war, mass emigration, and a record-low birth rate, Ukraine risks facing an even deeper demographic crisis. According to UN projections, if current trends continue, by 2040 there could be as few as 25 million people remaining in government-controlled territory.
Since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022, the population of territories controlled by the Ukrainian government has declined from approximately 37 million to 27–28 million people. This is not just about those who died during the war. A significant portion of the demographic losses consists of Ukrainians who have left the country or remained in the occupied territories.
According to various estimates, between 3 and 5 million Ukrainians still live in the temporarily occupied territories. Another 5 million or more are outside the country, primarily in European nations. A separate problem is that fewer and fewer Ukrainians plan to return home after the war ends. According to the Center for Economic Strategy, at the end of 2022, 74% of refugees stated their intention to return. Now, only 43% remain.
The demographic situation is also affected by combat casualties, mobilization, and uncertainty about the future. As a result, many Ukrainian couples are postponing having children. Demographers warn that the longer people put off the decision to become parents, the less likely they are to eventually take that step. “The longer you put off having children, the higher the risk that you will never have a child,” warns expert Svitlana Aksyonova.
Birth rates in Ukraine have already fallen to a critically low level. While in 2020 the average was 1.2 children per woman, that figure now stands at only 0.8–0.9. For stable population replacement, this rate should be approximately 2.1 children per woman.
Can financial assistance change the situation?
The Ukrainian government is trying to boost the birth rate through financial assistance. A new law provides for a one-time payment of 50,000 hryvnias after the birth of a child. Parents can also receive a monthly allowance of 7,000 hryvnias during the child’s first year of life.
In addition, the government funds infertility treatment. Military personnel are offered the option to freeze eggs or sperm free of charge. This allows them to preserve reproductive material in case they later lose the ability to have children due to military service or injury.
However, experts doubt that these payments alone will be enough to significantly change the demographic situation. During wartime, the decision to have a child is influenced not only by money but also by safety, living conditions, stability, and confidence in the future.
Ukraine may need a workforce from abroad
Another problem already affecting the economy is a labor shortage. According to estimates by the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, Ukraine is short about 2.5 million workers across various sectors.
Once the war ends, one possible way to address this shortage could be to attract foreign workers. However, the Ministry of Economy emphasizes that the country must first tap into the potential of Ukrainians already in the country, as well as those who have moved abroad. Deputy Minister of Economy Daria Marchak noted that the government can only move toward recruiting foreign workers after it has assessed and utilized these opportunities.
At the same time, *The Economist* points out that even the end of the war will not mean a rapid recovery of the population. Ukraine cannot count on a large-scale postwar baby boom, as the generations born in the 1990s and 2000s are already among the smallest in the country’s modern history. In other words, there will be fewer potential parents in the coming years than in previous generations.
How Many Ukrainians Might Return Home
Ella Libanova, director of the Institute of Demography at the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, previously expressed the view that after the war ends, only about one-third of the citizens who left the country may return to Ukraine. According to her, the duration of the war directly influences people’s decisions: the longer they live in other countries, the better they settle in there and the less likely they are to return.
Demographer Oleksandr Gladun also assessed the scale of the population decline. According to his calculations, since the start of the full-scale war, Ukraine has been losing approximately 1.15 million residents each year due to natural population decline and migration. According to the data he cited, about 185,000 children are born in the country each year, while approximately 505,000 people die. The difference between these figures amounts to about 320,000 people annually. According to the demographer’s estimate, migration accounts for an additional 830,000 people.
Thus, the demographic crisis in Ukraine has several causes: the war, the departure of millions of citizens, a low birth rate, and a significant gap between the number of births and deaths. Even after hostilities cease, these problems will not disappear automatically. Bringing people back, restoring birth rates, and addressing the labor shortage could become some of the most challenging tasks for the country in the coming decades. This is reported by The Economist.
