Ukraine's GDP fell by 2.4% in September due to Russian attacks and logistical problems

Ukraine's real GDP contracted by 2.4% year-over-year in September 2026. 

The main reasons were Russian attacks on industry, transportation problems, and restrictions on exports through seaports.

The transportation and mining sectors were hit the hardest. In the transportation sector, the decline accelerated to 20%, while in the mining sector, the contraction was 12.3%. The situation was affected by problems with rail logistics, a shortage of drivers, and the shutdown of metallurgical plants following Russian missile and drone attacks.

Trade, agriculture, electricity generation, and gas distribution also saw declines. Economists warn that without an improvement in export conditions, the situation in certain sectors could worsen.

According to the IER’s forecast, Ukraine’s real GDP could contract by approximately 0.5% by the end of 2026. However, this estimate remains preliminary and is subject to revision.

Source: Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting (IED).

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