Ukrainian Counterattacks in the South Could Disrupt Russia’s Spring–Summer Offensive Plans
Successful counterattacks by Ukrainian forces on the southern front could derail Russia’s planned offensive for spring–summer 2026, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
Ukraine’s Defense Forces have intensified operations not only in the areas of Oleksandrivka and Huliaipole, but also in the western part of Zaporizhzhia region.
“These counterattacks create tactical, operational, and strategic effects that could disrupt Russia’s planned offensive campaign in spring–summer 2026,” the report states.
Analysts note that the Russian command had been counting on gradual troop advances around Huliaipole. The offensive was intended to complement attacks near Orikhiv, allowing simultaneous approaches from the east and west, opening a path toward the regional center of Zaporizhzhia.
However, active Ukrainian operations have significantly complicated the situation for Russian forces in southern Ukraine. As of early March, the Russian army faces a much more challenging combat environment than at the beginning of the year.
Moreover, counterattacks in Oleksandrivka, Huliaipole, and other parts of Zaporizhzhia region are creating strategic effects on other sections of the front, including adjacent regions.
The report emphasizes that Ukrainian actions demonstrate the limited resources and organizational structure of Russian forces in Ukraine.
Since the beginning of the full-scale invasion on February 24, 2022, Russian combat losses in Ukraine have totaled approximately 1,274,990 personnel. Ukrainian defenders eliminated an additional 950 Russian troops in the past 24 hours alone.
Ukraine’s Defense Forces continue clearing operations along the border between Dnipropetrovsk region and Zaporizhzhia region.
On the Orikhiv axis, Russian troops attempt daily to push Ukrainian units out of Stepnohirsk, but Ukrainian forces conduct counterattacks, preventing the enemy from establishing positions.
