Despite the ceasefire, Russia continues to target Ukraine's energy sector, according to the ISW
Ukraine is ready for a mutual energy truce with Russia; however, the proposed terms could limit Kyiv’s ability to strike at Russian energy infrastructure without ensuring adequate protection for Ukrainian power plants. Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) have warned of such risks.
According to the ISW, as of October 12, Ukraine and Russia had not reached an agreement to cease strikes on energy facilities. Despite discussions of a possible truce, Russian forces continued to attack Ukraine’s energy infrastructure.
On the night of October 12, a thermal power plant west of Kharkiv, gas production facilities in the Kharkiv region, and an oil depot in Sarny, Rivne region, were hit by Russian strikes.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy also reported that on October 12 alone, Russian forces attacked six Ukrainian energy facilities.
At the same time, the Ukrainian military did not carry out any strikes against Russian energy infrastructure that night.
Zelenskyy stated that Ukraine is ready for a full energy ceasefire. However, Kyiv expects Moscow to take similar steps and give its official consent to such an agreement.
On October 11, an anonymous White House official clarified in a comment to Axios that U.S. President Donald Trump’s statement regarding an energy ceasefire referred only to a potential agreement. At that time, no official agreement existed between Ukraine and Russia.
According to the U.S. administration official, the initial version of the proposal calls for a moratorium on strikes against oil refineries. It could be expanded in the future to extend protection to other energy infrastructure facilities.
It is precisely the limited scope of the initial proposal that is causing concern at the ISW. Analysts believe that a moratorium limited solely to strikes on oil refineries could create unequal conditions for Ukraine and Russia.
Russia has dozens of operational oil refineries, while Ukraine has only one. Therefore, restricting strikes on oil refineries could significantly limit Ukraine’s ability to attack Russian energy infrastructure, but at the same time would not guarantee similar protection for Ukrainian energy facilities.
According to the ISW’s assessment, under current conditions, Russia could retain the ability to strike Ukrainian power plants during the winter of 2026–2027. The initial version of the proposal calls for protecting oil refineries, rather than the entire energy infrastructure.
In that case, Ukraine risks imposing restrictions on itself regarding attacks on Russian energy facilities, while Russian forces would be able to continue striking the Ukrainian power grid.
The ISW emphasizes that under such a scenario, a ceasefire would not provide Ukraine with symmetrical advantages. Instead, Moscow could gain additional opportunities to continue attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure in the run-up to and during the winter period.
Thus, the key issue remains not only the willingness of the parties to cease attacks, but also the scope of restrictions and guarantees of mutual compliance with the agreements, which are intended to ensure the protection of energy facilities in both countries.
This is according to a report by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
