58% of Spaniards consider an armed conflict with Morocco possible — Politico Europe

In Spain, 58% of respondents consider an armed conflict with Morocco likely within the next ten years due to disputes over the autonomous cities of Ceuta and Melilla. The results of a POLITICO Poll conducted by the independent company PF Global in September were published by Politico.

Concerns after the migration crisis

At the end of July, more than 70,000 migrants arrived in the Spanish enclave of Ceuta over two days, July 30 and 31. The event intensified criticism of Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez's government over border management and raised questions about Morocco's possible role.

Sánchez rejected suggestions that Rabat was involved in or aware of the mass movement of people, placing responsibility on “migration mafias.” At the same time, Popular Party leader Alberto Núñez Feijóo said that Morocco had “coordinated” the crisis and that the government was concealing it. A police report cited by the publication allowed that Moroccan agents may have helped organize the movement of people toward the Spanish border.

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Assessments of the threat by age and political views

Respondents aged 18–24 most often consider a possible military clash likely, at about 75%. Among people over 65, 47% share this view. A conflict was described as likely by 68% of voters of the conservative Popular Party and 75.7% of supporters of the far-right Vox. Among Socialist voters, 47% consider this scenario possible, while 43% reject it.

Three quarters of respondents, 75%, consider Morocco a real threat to Spain's territorial integrity. At the same time, 68% expect the country to retain sovereignty over Ceuta and Melilla, while 17% believe that one or both cities could come under Moroccan control within 20 years. Among young people aged 18–24, this figure stands at 26%.

Morocco was named a moderate or significant national security risk by 80% of respondents, more than Russia, the United States, or China. Against the backdrop of tensions, King Felipe VI is visiting Ceuta and Melilla this week for the first time in nearly 20 years.