Analysts shift 18 House races toward Democrats — The Hill

In the United States, analysts at the Cook Political Report have shifted their ratings for 18 House of Representatives races toward the Democratic Party. As The Hill writes, Democrats, who need to gain three additional seats to win a majority in the lower chamber of Congress, could win between nine and 19 seats under the current assessments.

Changes in race ratings

Republicans Bill Huizenga of Michigan and Rob Wittman of Virginia, who had previously been considered favorites, are now running in races categorized as toss-ups. Another five races moved from that category into one leaning toward Democrats. They include the districts of incumbent Republicans Mariannette Miller-Meeks and Zach Nunn in Iowa, as well as Scott Perry and Ryan Mackenzie in Pennsylvania.

Meanwhile, three vulnerable incumbent Democrats — Tom Suozzi and Laura Gillen in New York, and Susie Lee in Nevada — are likely to retain their seats under the new Cook Political Report ratings. Analysts classified Democrat Don Davis of North Carolina, whose district Republicans sought to redraw to their advantage, as being in a race with an uncertain outcome.

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Campaign factors

Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball, said that Republicans retaining the House of Representatives given the current overall indicators would be a surprise. Since mid-September, the group’s analysts have also shifted more than 20 districts toward Democrats. Kondik linked the Republican Party’s difficulties to the high cost of living.

Republicans, in turn, point to a financial advantage late in the campaign, particularly after spending by MAGA Inc., a super PAC that supports President Donald Trump. They also emphasize that many districts targeted by Democrats previously voted solidly for Trump. According to a Pew Research Center poll, 68% of respondents disapproved of the president’s performance, including 31% of his 2024 voters.

Redistricting

A number of states controlled by the Republican Party changed the boundaries of electoral districts in hopes of gaining additional seats. However, analysts believe the expected effect of this campaign is diminishing due to competitive races in Texas, Florida and Ohio. According to Kondik’s assessment, the boundary changes could collectively bring Republicans from two to five seats, and even fewer if the party faces unfavorable results in November.