Crystal Ball shifts 28 forecasts in Democrats’ favor — The Hill
In the United States, the nonpartisan election forecaster Sabato’s Crystal Ball shifted its ratings of 28 House races in favor of the Democratic Party two weeks before the midterm elections. Under the forecaster’s new ratings, Democrats have more than the 218 seats needed for a majority even without winning districts rated as toss-ups, The Hill reports.
Changes in district ratings
Sabato’s Crystal Ball, a unit of the University of Virginia Center for Politics, moved six races from the safe Republican category to likely Republican. Another six races were shifted from likely Republican to leaning Republican, while one was moved from leaning Republican to the toss-up category.
At the same time, nine races moved from the toss-up category to leaning Democratic, while another six shifted from leaning Democratic to likely Democratic. Crystal Ball managing editor Kyle Kondik wrote that Republicans retaining control of the House of Representatives would be a surprise, as would Democrats failing to win a noticeable majority.
More current news is available on the UA.News Telegram channel Telegram.
Key districts
In Iowa, the forecaster rated three of the state’s four House districts as leaning Democratic; Republicans currently control all four of the state’s seats. Arizona’s 1st and 6th districts, represented by Republicans, were also moved into the leaning Democratic category.
In Texas, the open 35th district was shifted from leaning Republican to the toss-up category. In North Carolina, Democrat Don Davis’s reelection campaign in the 1st district was rated as leaning Democratic. Of the 15 districts whose boundaries Republicans recently redrew in their favor, only three are rated safe Republican.
Kondik also pointed to potential surprises in districts that had not previously been considered competitive, including the reelection bids of Republicans Victoria Spartz in Indiana, Mike Flood in Nebraska, and Jeff Van Drew in New Jersey. According to Kondik, Democratic candidates outpaced Republicans in fundraising in third-quarter reports, weakening the Republican Party’s advantage in outside campaign spending.
