Democrats lead Republicans in 7 US Senate races — The Hill
Democratic candidates hold an advantage over Republicans in seven competitive US Senate races ahead of voting on Tuesday. At the same time, in five of these races, the gap remains within the margin of error, The Hill reports, citing a poll by The New York Times and Siena University.
Poll results
Abdul El-Sayed has the largest lead among Democrats in Michigan — 11 percentage points. James Talarico is ahead of the Republican by 7 points in Texas, while Maine candidate Troy Jackson leads by 6. Democrats have a 5-point advantage in Kansas and Ohio, a 2-point lead in Alaska, and a 1-point lead in Iowa.
Only El-Sayed's and Talarico's figures exceed the full margin of error. Therefore, the results in Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine and Ohio do not statistically allow for the identification of an undisputed leader.
The poll was conducted from October 23 to November 1. In Michigan, 1,011 voters were surveyed, with a margin of error of 3.6 points; in Texas, 1,215 people were surveyed, with a margin of error of 3.3 points. In the other states, the sample size ranged from 610 to 736 respondents, while the margin of error ranged from 4.1 to 4.8 points.
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Independent voters and the battle for a majority
In all seven polls, Democratic candidates were ahead of their Republican opponents among independent voters. Former Ohio senator Sherrod Brown held a 9-point advantage among them, while Troy Jackson had an 11-point lead. The largest gap in this group was recorded in Texas: Talarico was ahead of Republican Ken Paxton by 30 points.
In Iowa, Republican Ashley Hinson was slightly ahead of Democrat Josh Turek among voters aged 30 to 64. At the same time, Turek had a 5-point advantage among voters aged 65 and older. According to the poll, he was supported by 93% of Democrats, while Hinson was supported by 90% of Republicans.
According to a Decision Desk HQ forecast, Democrats had a 62% probability of winning a majority in the upper chamber of Congress this week. The party needs to gain four seats to regain control of the Senate.
An additional development in the Michigan race was a change in position by Democratic congresswoman Haley Stevens: on Sunday, she withdrew her endorsement of El-Sayed and backed Republican Mike Rogers. Stevens said she was not “turning her back on Democrats.” El-Sayed dismissed the significance of Stevens' endorsement of Rogers, saying he was more concerned about the rest of the state than about her and her fiancé.
