Édouard Philippe loses 3 percentage points and falls behind Mélenchon — Politico Europe

In France, former Prime Minister and Mayor of Le Havre Édouard Philippe has fallen to third place in a new poll measuring voting intentions in the first round of the 2027 presidential election. According to Politico Europe, in a survey by the Cluster 17 institute, he has 16% support — 3 percentage points less than in the previous poll, where his result was 19%.

Jean-Luc Mélenchon receives 18.5%, which is 0.5 percentage points less than in the previous survey. According to Politico's assessment, among the tested scenarios, Mélenchon has the best chances of reaching the second round against Marine Le Pen.

Le Pen leads first-round projections

National Rally candidate Marine Le Pen has 33% in a scenario in which Philippe represents the centrist bloc. In the previous poll, her figure stood at 31%.

Raphaël Glucksmann, who won the first round of the Socialist Party and Place publique primaries, increased his score from 12% to 13%. According to Cluster 17, 29% of voters who supported Emmanuel Macron in the 2022 presidential election are ready to support him, while 49% of this group are ready to vote for Philippe.

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Other scenarios

The Republicans candidate Bruno Retailleau has between 7.5% and 8% support. If Cannes Mayor David Lisnard, associated with Nouvelle Énergie, is included in the projection, he receives 8%. In this version, Le Pen has 30.5%, Retailleau 7%, and Éric Zemmour 3.5%.

In a scenario with Renaissance Secretary-General Gabriel Attal instead of Philippe, Attal receives 12%, compared with 13.5% in the September survey. Mélenchon's result is then 19.5%, and Glucksmann's is 14%.

The poll was conducted online among 3,000 respondents aged 18 and over using quota sampling. The stated margin of error is from 0.8 to 1.8 percentage points.