Japan calls current El Niño the strongest on record — Dawn
The Japan Meteorological Agency has called the current El Niño the strongest on record for sea surface temperature observations in the Niño 3 region of the eastern Pacific. According to Dawn, the agency compares temperature deviations from the norm, and its observations cover the period since 1949. By this measure, the current event has surpassed the 1997 El Niño.
At the same time, the UK Met Office calls El Niño unprecedented because sea surface temperatures in the central equatorial Pacific have exceeded levels recorded during previous such events. US meteorologists, for their part, believe that the current El Niño still falls short of the largest events in their records.
Different regions and indicators
The differences in assessments are linked to methods of measuring the strength of the phenomenon. The Japanese agency analyses the Niño 3 region in the eastern Pacific, while the United States monitors the neighbouring Niño 3.4 region in the east-central part of the ocean.
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The United States declares El Niño when water temperatures in the Niño 3.4 region are at least 0.5°C above normal and the atmosphere also responds: trade winds weaken and tropical rainfall shifts eastward. This interaction between the ocean and atmosphere is called ocean-atmosphere coupling.
Assessment amid warming
El Niño is part of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation system, the planet's main natural climate factor. It usually occurs once every two to seven years and lasts from nine to 12 months. During this phenomenon, trade winds weaken and warm water shifts eastward toward the Americas, affecting weather patterns in different regions of the world.
The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration uses the relative oceanic Niño index, which compares the temperature of the east-central Pacific with the rest of the tropical ocean. According to the agency's forecast, the current El Niño will become the strongest in its observations since 1950 if the three-month average deviation of this index reaches 2.5°C or more. The probability of such a scenario is assessed as high, but it has not yet been confirmed conclusively.
