IMF cuts Argentina’s 2026 growth forecast to 2.1% — Buenos Aires Times
The International Monetary Fund has cut its forecast for Argentina’s economic growth in 2026 to 2.1% from the 3.5% it expected in April and July. At the same time, the fund raised its inflation and unemployment forecasts for the country. The updated estimates in the October edition of the World Economic Outlook were reported by the Buenos Aires Times.
Weaker economic momentum
The IMF initially forecast 4% growth for Argentina in 2026. The forecast for 2027 was also worsened, from 4% to 3.5%. Petya Koeva Brooks, deputy director of the IMF’s Research Department, explained the revision by weaker-than-expected economic activity, subdued domestic demand and financial conditions that continue to constrain the recovery.
The IMF’s updated estimate is higher than the 1.5% forecast published in a September survey of analysts and economists by the Central Bank of Argentina. At the same time, it is nearly one percentage point below the 3% growth included by President Javier Milei’s government in its 2027 draft budget.
According to the national statistics agency INDEC, economic activity in July declined by 2.9% compared with June and by 1.4% year on year. Specialists surveyed by the central bank expect a weak third quarter and a recovery at the end of the year.
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Inflation and financing programme
The IMF raised its forecast for average annual inflation in 2026 from 30.4% to 32.5%, and for 2027 from 15.7% to 21.2%. These figures reflect the average inflation level during the year rather than the change in prices between December of one year and December of the next. According to the fund’s forecast, unemployment will stand at 7.6% in 2026 and 7.1% in 2027. INDEC estimated it at 7.9% in the second quarter of the current year.
Argentina is expected to grow more slowly in 2026 than the average for Latin America and the Caribbean, which the IMF forecasts at 2.3%. The fund’s chief economist, Silvana Tenreyro, said that Argentina’s economic recovery should begin in the final quarter of the year and strengthen in 2027–2028.
The forecasts were revised during the IMF and World Bank annual meetings in Bangkok, where an Argentine delegation that includes Economy Minister Luis Caputo is present. The parties may discuss the third review of the US$20 billion financing programme agreed in April 2025. If approved by the IMF’s Executive Board, Argentina may receive about US$860 million in new financing. The country’s total debt to the fund amounts to approximately US$56.7 billion.
