IMF cuts Mexico’s 2027 GDP growth forecast to 1.8% — The Rio Times
The International Monetary Fund has lowered its forecast for Mexico’s economic growth in 2027 to 1.8%, from the 1.9% expected in July. At the same time, the IMF raised its estimate for the growth rate in 2026 from 1.2% to 1.5%, The Rio Times reports.
The updated estimates were presented in the October edition of the IMF’s World Economic Outlook report, released on October 12 during the IMF and World Bank annual meetings in Bangkok. Fund staff had already published the same forecasts — 1.5% for 2026 and 1.8% for 2027 — following their annual review of the Mexican economy on October 2.
Exports and investment
The IMF expects exports and the stabilization of investment to contribute to a moderate acceleration of the Mexican economy. Supporting factors include shipments linked to production chains for artificial intelligence technologies. At the same time, trade and other uncertainty will continue to restrain economic activity.
More current news is available on the UA.News Telegram channel Telegram.
Analysts cited by El Economista note that Mexico is increasing supplies of computer equipment for data centers. In their view, exports of such products could exceed shipments of automobiles and auto components as early as this year. Gabriela Siller, head of analysis at Banco Base, linked rising imports from Taiwan to computer components assembled in Mexico and exported to the United States.
Comparison of forecasts
The IMF forecast of 1.5% for 2026 matches the central estimate of Mexico’s Finance Ministry. For 2027, Mexican authorities expect growth of about 2%, which is slightly above the fund’s forecast. Private analysts surveyed by Citi project growth of 1.4% in 2026, while the World Bank raised its own estimate for Mexico to 1.4% in early October.
The IMF also links risks for Mexico and Canada to high trade uncertainty. Mexico, the United States, and Canada are bound by the USMCA free trade agreement; Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum said that there are currently no agreements on its revision.
