CNN poll: Democrats lead in Kansas and Maine — The Hill

Democrats hold a narrow advantage in the U.S. Senate races in Kansas and Maine ahead of the election. According to a CNN/SSRS poll cited by The Hill, Democratic candidates are supported by 49% of likely voters in both states, while their Republican opponents are supported by 45%. The four-percentage-point difference is within the margin of error.

The race in Kansas

In Kansas, Democrat Adam Hamilton leads incumbent Republican Senator Roger Marshall, 49% to 45%. The poll also showed that Hamilton has a positive net favorability rating of three points, while Marshall has a negative net rating of 17 points.

The cost of living was the top issue for 43% of surveyed Kansas voters. Although President Donald Trump won the state in the 2024 election by a 16-point margin, the Senate campaign became competitive late in the election cycle. According to the nonpartisan forecaster Decision Desk HQ, Marshall has a 58% chance of reelection, and the race is classified as difficult to predict.

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The situation in Maine

In Maine, Democrat Troy Jackson also leads incumbent Republican Senator Susan Collins, 49% to 45%. In CNN's August poll, Jackson held a three-point lead.

Among Collins supporters, 74% said they were voting in support of her. At the same time, only 26% of Jackson voters said they were voting specifically for him, while 73% explained their choice by opposition to Collins. Decision Desk HQ estimates Jackson's probability of winning at 57%.

The poll was conducted from October 20 to 27 among 783 likely voters in Maine and 838 in Kansas. The margin of error for each survey is 4.5 percentage points. Decision Desk HQ also estimates the probability of Democrats taking control of the Senate at 60%.