Brazil poll records technical tie between Bolsonaro and Lula — The Rio Times

In Brazil, a poll by Futura Inteligência and 100% Cidades showed a technical tie ahead of the second round of the presidential election scheduled for October 25. Flávio Bolsonaro, a senator from the state of Rio de Janeiro, received 50.8% of valid votes, while President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva received 49.2%, The Rio Times reports.

Gap within the margin of error

The difference between the candidates stands at 1.6 percentage points, while the survey’s margin of error is 2.2 percentage points at a 95% confidence level. The poll was conducted by telephone on October 14 and 15 among 2,000 voters. It is registered with Brazil’s Superior Electoral Court under number BR-03764/2026.

In the overall distribution of responses, before recalculation into valid votes, Bolsonaro was supported by 49% of respondents and Lula by 47.5%. Another 1.5% of those surveyed chose a blank or invalid ballot or supported neither candidate, while 2.1% were undecided.

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Bolsonaro’s lead narrowed

In the previous Futura/100% Cidades poll, released on October 13, Bolsonaro had 51.8% of valid votes against Lula’s 48.2%. Over three days, his lead narrowed from 3.6 to 1.6 percentage points.

Futura also asked participants whom they would definitely not vote for. Lula was rejected by 47.2% of respondents, and Bolsonaro by 46.1%.