Poland raises second-quarter GDP growth estimate to 4.1% — RMF24

Poland’s Central Statistical Office (GUS) revised its estimate of the country’s real GDP growth in the first two quarters of 2026. In the second quarter, the Polish economy grew by 4.1% year-on-year, compared with the previous estimate of 3.9%. The figure for the first quarter was raised from 3.5% to 3.7%.

As RMF24 reports, real GDP growth in both quarters was revised upward by 0.2 percentage points. GUS explained that the adjustments were influenced, among other things, by changes in data on government consumption and gross fixed capital formation.

Revision of annual data

The statistical office noted that the quarterly real GDP figures were refined after the revision of annual data for 2025. The difference between the previous and updated estimates in the first and second quarters of 2026 was plus 0.2 percentage points.

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Minister’s reaction and IMF forecast

Polish Finance Minister Andrzej Domański said that the country’s economy is growing faster than previously estimated. He linked the stronger second-quarter result to better investment figures.

Earlier, the International Monetary Fund maintained its forecast for Poland’s GDP growth in 2026 at 3.4%. The fund raised its forecast for 2027 by 0.1 percentage points, to 2.5%. The IMF also expects average annual inflation in Poland to stand at 3.2% in 2026 and 2.8% in 2027.