Russia will receive twice as much oil and gas revenue as it did in September
In October 2026, Russia will collect about 1 trillion rubles in taxes from oil and gas sales—approximately $12 billion. This is 10% more than in October of last year and more than double the revenue collected in September. At the same time, oil and gas revenues to the Russian budget for the first ten months of the year will still be lower than last year.
In October, Russia’s federal budget revenues from oil and gas will rise significantly. According to Reuters estimates, they will total about 1 trillion rubles, or $11.97 billion. This is approximately 10% more than in October 2025. As the agency notes, October’s revenues will be more than double those of September. However, this surge is not solely due to changes in the global oil market. The specifics of tax payments in Russia also play a significant role.
Why Russia’s Revenues Will Grow
One of the main reasons for the increase in revenues will be quarterly payments of the additional income tax on oil production. These payments are made to the budget in separate installments, so they can significantly affect monthly figures. Even excluding this tax, Russia’s budget revenues from oil and gas in October will still be higher than in September. According to Reuters estimates, they will rise by 164 billion rubles, or approximately $1.96 billion. In percentage terms, this represents a 36% increase.
Another factor is the rise in oil prices on the global market. Prices for crude oil have risen due to supply disruptions caused by the conflict in the Middle East. For Russia, which is heavily dependent on energy exports, this creates an opportunity to earn more money from oil sales. However, higher prices do not mean that all of the Russian oil sector’s problems have disappeared. Total revenue is influenced not only by the price of crude oil but also by production volumes, sales volumes, and tax regulations.
Declining production is holding back revenue
Despite the more favorable price situation, Russia may generate less oil and gas revenue by the end of the year than it had planned. One reason remains the decline in oil production. According to forecasts, in the third quarter of 2026, Russian production will be approximately 5% lower than in the same period last year. This partially offsets the positive effect of rising raw material prices.
Both indicators—the price of oil and the volume of crude the country can produce and sell—are important for the Russian budget. If production declines, higher prices will not necessarily compensate for all losses. Therefore, the October increase should be viewed separately from the overall trend for the year. A single month with high tax revenues does not yet indicate a sustained recovery in revenue.
How Much Does Russia Plan to Earn from Oil and Gas in 2026?
Russia’s 2026 budget projects 8.92 trillion rubles in oil and gas revenues. That is approximately $106.7 billion. Total federal budget revenues are projected at 40.28 trillion rubles, or roughly $482.3 billion. Thus, oil and gas remain a vital source of revenue for the Russian treasury. At the same time, actual revenues depend on energy prices, production volumes, and other economic factors.
According to Reuters estimates, from January through October 2026, Russia will earn approximately 6.45 trillion rubles, or $77.2 billion, from oil and gas sales. This is 14% less than in the first ten months of 2025. Thus, the expected growth in October does not change the overall picture: for most of the year, Russia’s oil and gas revenues remain lower than last year’s. At the same time, rising oil prices and large quarterly tax payments could temporarily boost budget revenues, according to Reuters.
